The market went into defensive mode even before the data was released.
Bitcoin fell, altcoins fell even more, and volatility returned with strength.
This is not panic.
It is positioning.
Tomorrow (16/12/2025), the market receives one of the most sensitive macro packages of the month — data that not only moves prices in the short term but also adjusts expectations about interest rates, which today are the real engine of risk assets.
And after the last FOMC, this reading became even more delicate.
🏈What is really at stake tomorrow
At first glance, it seems 'just' another Payroll.
In practice, it is a complete combo that answers the question the market has been trying to price since the interest rate cut:
The Fed can continue cutting… or was this just a one-time adjustment?
The data released tomorrow form a logical sequence:
employment
income
consumption
economic activity
This is exactly what the Fed observes before changing interest rates again.
💹Payroll is not about employment — it's about future inflation
The non-farm Payroll is treated as the main data point, but the common mistake is to analyze it in isolation.
The Fed does not want to know only if jobs are being created.
It wants to know if the economy remains too hot.
Strong job creation → sustained income
Sustained income → resilient consumption
Resilient consumption → inflation hard to bring down
That is:
a strong Payroll reduces the urgency for new interest rate cuts.
💵The data that the market underestimates the most: wages
The average hourly earnings often go unnoticed — and that is precisely why it surprises.
Wages are service inflation.
Service inflation is the Fed's biggest current concern.
Even a Payroll that is merely 'okay' can turn negative for the market if:
wages have been accelerating
unemployment remains very low
In this scenario, the Fed does not gain comfort to accelerate cuts — on the contrary.
🛒Retail sales: closing the cycle
Employment generates income.
Income generates consumption.
Retail sales show whether the real economy is feeling the pinch… or if it continues to run above expectations.
Strong consumption = resilient economy
Resilient economy = high interest rates for longer
And after the cautious Fed speech, any sign of excessive resilience tends to dampen market enthusiasm.
🏭PMIs: the forward-looking view
The industrial and services PMIs do not speak of the past — they speak of the future pace of the economy.
PMI above 50 → expansion
Firm PMI in services → persistent inflation
Weak PMI → deceleration narrative gains strength
This data helps the market decide if the recent cut was the beginning of something bigger… or just a technical adjustment.
🤔Why did the market fall before the data?
Because the risk is asymmetric.
When interest rates are at the center of the narrative:
strong data hurts more than weak data helps
no one wants to be leveraged before the decision
The recent decline is not irrational.
It's the market reducing exposure before an important response.
👀What to observe after the data
More than the number itself, observe:
the combination of the data
the narrative that gains strength
Possible readings:
Weak data and controlled wages → relief in interest rates → breath for risk
Strong data and firm wages → pressured interest rates → risk remains under pressure
Mixed data → volatility and market without clear direction
✅Conclusion: tomorrow does not define a bull market — it defines expectations
This is not an event that 'unleashes a rally' or 'kills the market'.
It adjusts the timing and pace of the next moves.
In the current scenario, understanding interest rates matters more than trying to predict candles.
And those who ignore this end up reacting later — usually in the most expensive way possible.
Tomorrow, the market responds.
Those paying attention to the message behind the data will understand much more than just the price moving.
After the release of the numbers, I will make a post detailing the implications of the data, analyzing the most relevant points and explaining how this may impact the macroeconomic scenario and the crypto market. Stay tuned so you don't miss the post-market analysis, where I will highlight what really matters and what you need to consider in your trading plan.
