The U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report for November 2025 is scheduled to be released at 21:30 Beijing time on December 16 (Tuesday). Due to the previous government shutdown, this report will combine the non-farm employment data for October and November.
📊 Market Key Expectations and Focus Points
Due to the combined release of data and the special background, the market generally expects this report to present a complex situation, with a focus on the following points:
Key Data Forecast
· Non-Farm Payroll (November): The market generally expects an increase of 50,000 jobs, but the forecast range varies from a decrease of 20,000 to an increase of 127,000, indicating significant divergence.
· Unemployment rate (November): Expected to rise from 4.4% in October to 4.5%, continuing the upward trend of recent months.
· Data specificity: This report does not include unemployment rate data for October. At the same time, employment figures for October may be significantly dragged down by the federal government's layoff plan.
Impact on Federal Reserve policy
The core logic of the current market is: Weak employment data may reinforce the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts, while strong data may delay the arrival of easing policies. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has previously cited the weakening labor market as a main reason for rate cuts.
💡 Potential impact pathways on the cryptocurrency market
Non-farm data typically influences the cryptocurrency market through the following pathways:
1. Impact on the dollar and interest rate expectations: Cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoin) often show an inverse relationship with the dollar index (DXY).
· If the data is weaker than expected, it may weaken the dollar and raise market expectations for interest rate cuts, which is generally seen as a favorable liquidity environment for cryptocurrencies.
· If the data is stronger than expected, it may support the dollar and dampen interest rate cut expectations, putting pressure on risk assets such as cryptocurrencies in the short term.
2. Impact on overall risk sentiment: Non-farm data will affect the performance of traditional risk assets such as U.S. stocks. During periods of market turmoil, the correlation between cryptocurrencies and tech stocks may increase, and volatility in traditional markets may be transmitted to the crypto market.
⚠️ Trading risk reminder
· Increased volatility: Since this report includes data from two months and the situation is unusual, any deviation from expectations may be magnified by the market, leading to sharp price fluctuations.
· Comprehensive analysis: Non-farm data is not the only factor affecting the market. This Thursday (December 18), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November will also be released, and this inflation data will similarly reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Traders need to make comprehensive judgments based on multiple data points.
In summary, tonight's non-farm report, due to its specificity and crucial guidance on Federal Reserve policy, is likely to become an important event triggering market volatility. For cryptocurrency traders, closely monitoring the immediate response of the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields after the data release is an essential clue for judging market direction.
