Family! Tonight's financial circle is comparable to the 'World Cup final.' The 'deep-water bomb' of the U.S. non-farm employment data is about to explode. Whether gold can kick open the door of $4400 per ounce depends on whether this wave of data is strong enough! As someone who has been watching the precious metals and crypto market for eight years, today we won't beat around the bush; I'll lay out the cards on gold price fluctuations clearly.
First, the conclusion: The medium-term rising script for gold has long been written, and the non-farm data is at most a 'small interlude' that cannot change the overall direction. Why am I so confident? Let's first analyze how sufficient the 'ammunition depot' is for supporting the gold price to break through.
The core logic is the Fed's 'stimulus package'. In December, the Fed just cut interest rates to 3.50%-3.75%. What does this mean? Previously, having spare cash and saving in the bank for interest was appealing, and no one wanted to hold gold as a 'non-yielding asset'; now that interest rates have dropped, the 'opportunity cost' of holding gold has been cut by half, effectively providing a 'support spring' for gold prices. Not to mention that the Fed has also pumped $40 billion into short-term treasury bills, this operation injects liquidity into the market, which is simply a 'nutrient' for gold.
The actions of market funds can explain the issue better. Global physical gold ETFs have continuously attracted capital for six months, with $5.2 billion absorbed in November alone. This is not something small retail investors can achieve. Coupled with central banks around the world continuously buying gold as if they were 'scooping up', along with the recent global situation filled with unsettling uncertainties, risk-averse funds are flocking to gold, creating a virtuous cycle: the more buyers there are, the higher the volatility of gold prices, and the price center also rises accordingly, establishing a clear 'the strong get stronger' pattern.
Of course, tonight's non-farm payroll data is indeed an 'X factor', and we can't just close our eyes and make assumptions. Here, I want to emphasize that when looking at non-farm data, don't just look at the number of jobs; wage growth is the 'key code' hidden behind it. If both employment numbers and wage growth are below expectations, it indicates that the U.S. job market is starting to 'cool down'. The market will surely bet wildly on the Fed continuing to cut rates next year; at that point, if the dollar index falls, gold could surge, and the 4400 level is highly likely to be 'broken in one touch'; but if the data suddenly 'surprises positively', for example, if employment numbers far exceed expectations and wages continue to rise, the market will panic, 'Are high interest rates going to continue?' At that time, if the dollar and real interest rates rise, gold will inevitably be pressed down, and the breakthrough momentum may have to slow for a few days, or there might even be a small pullback.
But let's broaden our perspective; even if gold is splashed with 'cold water' by the non-farm data tonight, the major trend for next year won't change. The Fed's easing cycle has already been set, and the habit of central banks buying gold cannot be changed overnight; with these two 'ballast stones' in place, a long-term breakthrough of 4400 in gold is just a matter of time, and it might even set a new record.
To be honest, I will be watching the screen tonight in real-time for data, and any unusual movements will be immediately synchronized with my operational thoughts in the comments section. If anyone has questions, such as how to respond to their positions or wants to know the key points moving forward, feel free to leave a message in the comments. Follow me @男神讲趋势 #ETH走势分析 $BTC
