Brothers, is this wave of interest rate hikes making your scalp tingle?
Yesterday, I was still shouting in the comments, 'The rebound is a short-selling opportunity to make easy money.' Today, looking at the liquidation data across the internet, within 24 hours, 188,000 people were liquidated, and 650 million US dollars vanished into thin air, with long positions making up 577 million and short positions only about 73 million. With this data laid out, who still dares to say this decline was 'unexpected'? In a clearly bearish market, those who insist on going long can only say they haven't paid enough tuition.
Let's talk about Bitcoin first. This wave of decline is not just random fluctuations, but rather an accelerated drop after breaking the upward wedge. The key support was easily broken without any consideration. Yesterday's rebound that surged to 90,000, I immediately determined it was a trap to lure in buyers, and sure enough, the pullback was faster than a rabbit. Now the short-term indicators seem to show signs of a short squeeze and a low-level golden cross, but don't dream too much; the ceiling for the rebound space is already locked in. The strong might only touch 88,000, while the weak struggle at 87,000.
In terms of operations, I’ll leave you with one phrase: boldly short in the 8.7-8.8 range, with an initial target of 8.3-8.0. There’s not even a hint of a stop-loss signal on the daily chart; if 80,000 can’t be held, the next target will directly drop to 75,000. Those shouting 'buy the dip' now should first check if their account balance is enough to cover the fees.
Looking at Aunty next, this wave follows a standard bearish flag pattern, a textbook trap for buyers. The previous sharp drop is the 'flagpole', and the consolidation in the middle is the 'flag'. Yesterday, a bunch of people mistook the consolidation for a rectangular range and foolishly entered long, only to be pressed down and rubbed in the dirt. The downward momentum on the 4-hour chart has not stopped; next, it’s either a direct drop or a rebound before dropping again.
I personally lean towards the latter; a straight drop is likely to result in a quick rebound, so it's safer to wait for a rebound before shorting. Tonight’s non-farm payroll data is unlikely to stir up big waves; even if positive news sparks a rebound, the high point will be around the 3030-3050 range, with 3044 being the lower edge of a flag pattern turning into a resistance level, so go short directly. The initial target is 2730-2780; with this drop, many bulls are going to lose their shorts.
Next, let’s talk about the altcoins you are most concerned about; my DMs have been bombarded with questions asking, “When can we buy the dip?”.
To be honest, those who can precisely buy the dip are like gods; I, a mere mortal, cannot do that. But I can give you a reference standard: the position of the black swan spike during that wave at 1011, if it floats up 10%, you can take a small position to bet on a rebound. For example, look at ENA around 0.1313, DOGE around 0.095, ADA around 0.27, LINK around 7.9. These positions were pushed down by the market at that time, and they are likely the real value range of the coins.
But I must throw a bucket of cold water on this: market makers will not follow the script; don’t go all in; just test the waters in small ranges. Let alone those altcoins that have already dropped below the 1011 price; do you still dare to buy the dip? They are not buying the dip; they are buying you out!
The current market is really interesting; if you call it a bear market, there are always a few meme coins secretly rising several times; if you call it a bull market, the overall market is wobbling like it’s had fake liquor. To make money, there are two paths: either follow the popular coins on the gainers list closely or wait until they go crazy and then short them. Just like FOLKS, it dropped from 46 to 14 in two days; anyone who understood this bearish trend made a fortune.
Most altcoins are 'returning from whence they came.' If you’re playing with small amounts in altcoins, don’t set stop losses; otherwise, the market maker will shake you out with a single fluctuation. For low market cap meme coins like FHE, the trading volume hasn’t shrunk yet, so don’t rush to short; wait until it stops rising to act. In this market, chasing the gainers has a higher success rate than buying the dip.
Finally, let’s talk about a few popular coins and I’ll share my thoughts based on real trades:
ASTER: I was previously stuck in spot trades, but the profits from my short positions covered my losses. I’ve told you all before, 0.9 is the critical cost line; if it breaks, go short directly. This operation guarantees profit with no loss. SOL: This asset is approaching the bottom of the daily range; I am bearish but not shorting. At positions 125 and 122.9, we can go long, with a stop loss set below 121 and a target of 135. Position size should be controlled at 5.5%, with 10x leverage, the risk-reward ratio is incredibly high; don’t miss this chance. RATS: The daily chart shows three consecutive bullish candles, with a W bottom pattern + MACD crossing above the zero line, it’s likely to challenge the resistance at 0.00005. If it retraces to around 0.000035, we can buy the dip and take quick profits. MERL: After a sharp rise of 17%, it has been consolidating between 0.46-0.47, a typical low liquidity trap. The next probable script is “selling pressure → bottoming out → crashing,” so we should short at highs in the 0.46-0.48 range, targeting first at 0.4, then at 0.35.
Brothers, this wave of market action is like sifting sand; those who survive are not greedy and understand the rhythm. Those who shout “go all in to get rich” every day end up being the market's fertilizer.
If you want to follow me in making profits, like and follow so you don’t fall behind@帝王说币 #加密市场观察 $BTC
