“Bro, ETH has hit a new high again, should we rush in?” As soon as I opened my eyes in the morning, three messages from fans popped up. I smiled at the K-line chart; this is not a new high, it's clearly the last carnival before the ‘castle in the air’ collapses.
Having been in the circle for eight years, I can't say I can see through all the ups and downs of every project, but for ETH, I can confidently say it's ‘clear as day’. From the bull market frenzy in 2017 to the black swan crash in 2020, I've stumbled and also made enough profit to relax for half a year; my trading notes are filled in three notebooks.
This wave of ETH's rise, to put it nicely, is a 'breakthrough market'; to put it harshly, it's a 'nonsensical charge'. Everyone should take a look at the trading volume chart: As the price soars, the trading volume actually decreases, like a car with the accelerator pressed to the floor but not much gas in the tank; it looks impressive but won't go far. A normal healthy rise should be 'price and volume both increasing'; real funds must be pouring in for the price to stabilize; but now with this 'no volume new high', it’s like a bubble that, no matter how big it gets, will pop with a poke.
Many novice friends always think 'new highs are opportunities', and blindly enter the market with a 'fear of missing out' mentality, treating the market like a casino. Let me share a little judgment tip: look at the effectiveness of support levels. This wave of rise has skipped the key consolidation zone from earlier, without even a decent pullback confirmation, just like a person running forward without steady footing; falling is just a matter of time. My own strategy is clear: I not only didn't increase my position but actually took profits on some of my previous profitable positions, and I've also set up protection for the remaining positions, so even if there’s a pullback, I’m not afraid of a 'roller coaster ride'.
Surely someone will ask: 'Can we short now?' My answer is 'it varies from person to person'. For someone like me who trades long-term, risk control comes first, and the margin is set high enough that even short-term fluctuations won't easily 'knock me out'; but if you're a novice just entering the market, don’t blindly follow the trend. It's more important to build your own trading system. There are never 'guaranteed profits' in the market, only the survival rule of 'respecting the market'.
To be honest: ETH's upcoming trend will likely return to a reasonable support range. If you don't have a position now, don't rush to 'buy the dip'; if you have a position, remember to set up protection. I will share my real-time judgments in the comment section every day, follow me@帝王说币 #ETH走势分析 $BTC
