Because there are too many evil cultivators. A high profit-to-loss ratio is the most significant piece of cake left for speculators in the market. There are easier paths to eat this piece of cake, and they resemble the righteous sects.

However, achieving a high win rate is extremely difficult. One way is to go the route of evil cultivation, similar to the Evil-Repelling Sword Manual, where one cuts off their own profits or amplifies risks; another way is to obtain the true secret, akin to the Nine Yin Manual, which is truly an extremely precious Alpha.

The current problem is that the Nine Yin Manual is rare and secretive, while the Evil-Repelling Sword Manual is readily available.

This is why those with a high profit-to-loss ratio, often referred to as 'trend traders', look with a kind of almost pitying arrogance at those who pursue a high win rate.

The reputable ones (high risk-reward) are actually taking advantage of the market's 'fat tail effect'.

High risk-reward ratios are not just a piece of cake; they are the only 'anti-fragile' means for retail investors in this zero-sum game market.

Whether it's the turtle trading rule or stock market wizard Livermore, their core tactic is 'trial and error'. In ten trades, I can be wrong six or even seven times. But I cut losses extremely quickly each time, strictly limiting losses.

And those one or two times I got it right, I hold on tightly, letting the profits run until the trend completely ends.

This kind of profit curve is 'convex' in mathematical terms. Although the process is painful, with my face getting swollen and the win rate only at 30%-40%, as long as I capture that so-called 'black swan', the account funds will soar instantly.

This is indeed the easiest path to imitate, because it conforms to the biggest characteristic of financial markets—price fluctuations are not normally distributed. Although big trends are rare, they will definitely come.


Evil-Slaying Sword Manual (Pseudo High Win Rate), which is the deadlock for most retail investors.

Why is this called 'self-mutilation'?

Because the high win rate achieved by the vast majority of retail investors is obtained through 'holding positions' or 'early profit-taking'.

Make a little profit and run, of course the win rate is high, because the price will always fluctuate a bit to let you break even. If you lose, just hold on, not closing the position doesn’t count as a loss, the win rate still looks like 100%.

Extreme examples include grid trading methods or unprotected selling options strategies. There have always been many people studying various variations of online trading methods.

This is why high risk-reward traders say 'eventually the win rate will revert to below 50%'. Because in this market, any high win rate achieved through 'holding' will eventually be taken away by a black swan. And the high win rate gained from 'early profit-taking' often results in buying high or missing out in big trends, inadvertently stepping into a completely wrong rhythm and eventually exiting.

Nine Yin Manual (True High Win Rate), ordinary people have only seen pigs run but have never eaten pork.

True top-level high win rates do exist. But this requires an extremely high threshold.

There are extremely profound information asymmetries. Or discovering some structural bugs in an extremely segmented micro market.

Those who achieve such high win rates are called 'Alpha Hunters'. They do not need to hold on. They truly see money that others cannot see. They hit the target every time. However, such people are too rare.

An ordinary retail investor, holding Tongdaxin, watching news that lags by a few hours, drawing a few moving averages,

Without information advantage, speed advantage, or capital advantage. Ordinary people pursuing high win rates have only one way to do what was said earlier: to hold positions and sacrifice odds.

So, the so-called hierarchy of contempt may be like this:

Traders with high risk-reward ratios (trend followers) admit they are weak and acknowledge they cannot predict the future, so they honestly exchange many small losses for a big stroke of luck. This is an acknowledgment of human ignorance.

And blindly pursuing high win rates, if traders do not possess top-level quantitative abilities, they often fall into the trap of 'having to bet on low-probability events not happening' because they want to win.

I am Little Egg Tart, a professional analyst and teacher, a mentor and friend on your investment journey! As an analyst, the most basic thing is to help everyone make money. I will solve your confusion, trapped positions, and speak with strength. When you are lost and don’t know what to do, follow Little Egg Tart to find your direction$ETH