$BTC $ETH Non-farm payroll data 'distortion' amplifies volatility, cryptocurrency market focuses on the Fed's narrative shift

The current market is approaching a critical juncture, with the U.S. November non-farm payroll data set to be released, and widespread expectations of weak job growth and a potential increase in the unemployment rate.

It is noteworthy that this data may have statistical biases and weight adjustments due to previous government shutdowns, and officials have acknowledged that the reliability of short-term data has decreased. This means that the market will no longer simply trade the numbers themselves but will shift towards speculating on the expectations and rhythm of the Fed's policy shift.

For the cryptocurrency market, this scenario has a dual impact: weak data may reinforce expectations of interest rate cuts, providing medium-term liquidity support for assets like BTC; however, at the same time, data distortion will amplify short-term volatility, increasing uncertainty around interest rates and the dollar's movements, which may trigger severe deleveraging.

At this stage, the quality of the non-farm data is not the only focus; the key is whether it is sufficient to alter the overall narrative regarding the Fed's policy path.

For retail investors, it is advisable to remain calm and observant, avoiding high-leverage operations around the data release.

Pay close attention to changes in capital flows, and whether there is a repositioning and price reassessment driven by macro uncertainties.

During periods of low-reliability data, greater emphasis should be placed on position management and risk diversification, seizing medium to long-term layout opportunities brought about by shifts in market sentiment rather than chasing short-term volatility. #加密市场观察 #非农就业数据