November seasonally adjusted non-farm employment data preview: Gold under short-term pressure, primarily short on rebounds
At 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the market is focused on the U.S. November seasonally adjusted non-farm employment data to be officially released. This data was delayed due to a previous government shutdown, and its results will directly reshape the Federal Reserve's policy expectations and the trends of major assets. Combining leading indicators and market logic, this month's non-farm data is highly likely to exceed expectations, and gold will face significant bearish pressure in the short term.
From the data clues, the October non-farm data has been revised up from 12,000 to 36,000, and with temporary disruptive factors such as hurricanes and strikes dissipating, the November employment market is expected to show a strong rebound. Although some institutions predict an increase of about 50,000 jobs, historically, the dissipation of disruptive factors is often accompanied by a recovery in employment data, and there is strong recruitment demand in industries such as healthcare and leisure hotels, further supporting the likelihood of non-farm data exceeding expectations.
The linkage logic between non-farm data and gold is clear: better-than-expected employment numbers mean that the U.S. economic outlook is improving, which will strengthen market expectations for high interest rates, pushing the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields upward, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, putting pressure on gold prices. Currently, although gold is supported by medium- to long-term interest rate cut expectations and central bank purchases, short-term data shocks are expected to dominate the market sentiment.
It is recommended to seize the opportunity to short on rebounds: when gold prices rebound to the range of 4300-4310, one can lay out short positions, with lower targets looking towards the 4260-4240 area.
It should be noted that market volatility may intensify after the data release, and strict stop-loss measures should be set to guard against the risk of a rebound caused by sudden variables such as unemployment rates exceeding expectations. The core of the operation lies in relying on data logic, focusing on short-term volatility opportunities, while being cautious of the game between medium- to long-term trends and short-term shocks.
