【Core view】: Long-term bearish clouds overhead, short-term mired in consolidation.

The trend of SOL is currently quite tangled. Although the 12H large scale is still constrained by a bearish pattern and tightly suppressed by key moving averages, the 4H and 1H short-term have entered a consolidation range of 'up and down squeeze'. In simple terms: the overall direction is still bearish, but the short-term main force is washing the盘. It is advisable not to chase high and kill low, as it is easy to be caught in a double trap; patiently waiting for the breakout of the range is the best strategy.

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📊 Long-term trend: Bearish (12H)

Current situation interpretation:

Closing price 128.20 clearly breaks below the EMA9 and EMA21 dual moving averages, and continues to operate below the pressure level of 131.17. Structurally, the highs are decreasing, and the bearish momentum has not yet been fully released, with heavy pressure above.

[12H Swing Strategy]

• Key Operation: Short in the major direction, but wait for a rebound to the pressure area before acting.

• Defense/Bull-Bear Boundary: 148.09 (If the close returns to this level, the bearish scenario fails)

🛑 Short Position Layout:

• Rebound Short (Pending Order): 131.17 ～ 148.09 (Recommended capital allocation 70%)

• Breakout Short (Chasing Price): Break below 107.05 (Recommended capital allocation 30%)

• Stop Loss: 156.72

• Take Profit Target (TP): 80.62, 39.58

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📉 Medium-term Trend: Consolidation (4H)

Current Status Interpretation:

4H has entered an awkward consolidation period. The closing price of 128.20 is perfectly sandwiched between EMA9 (128.11) and EMA21 (130.02), with bulls and bears offsetting each other, leaving the direction temporarily unclear.

[4H Range Strategy]

• Key Operation: Go short high and low within the range, or simply wait and watch for a breakout.

• Capital Suggestion: Wait and see 60% + Range Orders 40%

🛑 Operation Layout:

• Range Operation: 123.28 ～ 134.10 (Bearish operation within the range)

• Short Confirmation: Only consider going short if the close effectively breaks below 123.28.

• Bullish Turn: Change to a bullish outlook only if the close returns above 134.10.

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⚡ Short-term Trend: Consolidation (1H)

Current Status Interpretation:

Although the price barely holds above the short moving average, the resistance at 128.96 is heavy, and the rebound lacks strength. This is a typical 'weak consolidation', which may drop at any time due to prolonged consolidation.

[1H Ultra Short-term Strategy]

• Key Operation: Maintain a bearish mindset below the pressure level, do not easily go long.

• Defense Level: 122.48 (breaking this confirms a short-term weakening)

🛑 Operation Layout:

• Bearish Operation: Look for short points below 128.96

• Breakout Long: Consider going long only if a strong close is above 134.28.

• Capital Suggestion: Patient pending orders 70% + Breakout chasing 30%

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📝 Summary and Operational Suggestions

SOL is currently in a major short position with minor consolidation, making it more difficult to operate.

1. Holders of short positions: Continue to hold long-term shorts, set stop loss at 156.72, but be prepared for short-term choppy fluctuations.

2. Those with no positions: Currently both 4H and 1H are in consolidation; it is recommended to 'watch more and act less'.

• Aggressive: Try light short positions near 128.96 - 131.17.

• Conservative: Wait for a break below 123.28 (4H lower edge) or 122.48 (1H defense) before entering short, avoiding the choppy market in between.