Recent data shows that the job market has not cooled significantly,
and the Federal Reserve has no urgent reason to let go.
In this context, it is difficult for the market to bet on a "quick pivot to dovish."
If non-farm data remains strong, even above expectations,
the consensus is that interest rate cut expectations will be delayed,
and the dollar and interest rates will remain high,
putting pressure on risk assets,
making the rise seem more like a better position for the bears.
Even if non-farm data is not particularly impressive,
as long as there is no "obvious weakening,"
it is also difficult for the market to experience a smooth bullish trend.
In a high interest rate environment, capital prefers defense rather than chasing prices.
The most common occurrence on non-farm night is not a trend reversal,
but rather a bounce followed by a pullback.
The true direction often appears only after emotions are digested.
In this market situation,
rather than rushing to go long, it is better to respect the trend and control positions.
The market is still there, but capital needs to survive first.
Tonight's non-farm data,
the key is not whether it will rise,
but whether it will be sold off after the rise.