非农数据

The non-farm data will be released "unconventionally" tonight, drawing attention to signs of cooling in the labor market.

The U.S. non-farm employment report for November will be published at 21:30 Beijing time on December 16 (Tuesday). This report has been delayed due to a historic government shutdown and contains several unusual aspects.

Key highlights and expectations of the report

1. "Two-in-one" data package: Due to the interruption in data collection in October, this report will simultaneously include non-farm employment figures for both October and November. However, the unemployment rate data for October will be missing.
2. General market expectations: Economists predict that non-farm employment in November will increase by about 40,000 to 50,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.4%.
3. Key industries to watch: Job growth is expected to be concentrated in healthcare, leisure, and hospitality; while industries related to goods production may continue to be weak.

Special background and interpretation challenges

This data is affected by two significant special events, and interpretation needs to be particularly cautious:

· Impact of the government shutdown: The 43-day shutdown may have distorted data collection. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also noted that data should be examined with a "certain degree of skepticism."
· Federal employee exodus: More than 150,000 federal employees left in October due to the government’s "paid leave program," which is expected to significantly lower the government employment figures for that month. Some analyses predict that non-farm employment in October may have decreased.

Impact on the market

As one of the key bases for Federal Reserve policy-making, this "unconventional" non-farm report will affect market expectations for future interest rate paths. If the data is significantly weaker than expected, it may strengthen market bets on Fed rate cuts; conversely, it could suppress expectations for easing.

In summary, tonight's non-farm report will provide important clues for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market, but its special nature and complexity require investors to conduct more cautious analysis. #非农数据

🚨Just out! The U.S. non-farm data is mixed, what signals are hidden?

💥The latest U.S. non-farm employment report has just been released, and the data is somewhat "split," but it may point the market in a direction. The November data is as follows:

⭐️ New jobs: 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000.
⭐️ Unemployment rate: rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.4%.

Key interpretation: Why might the market see this as "good news"?

On the surface, the new jobs exceeding expectations shows economic resilience. However, the rise in the unemployment rate is a more critical clue, clearly confirming that the labor market is "moderately cooling." This is precisely the scenario the Federal Reserve hopes to see—an economy slowing down gradually without excessive tightening, creating conditions for a policy shift.

Therefore, although this report is contradictory, it is likely to be interpreted by the market as "favorable for interest rate cuts," as it reduces the pressure on the Federal Reserve to further tighten policy, instead providing data support for the initiation of an interest rate cut cycle next year.

What might this mean for the market?

For global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, clearer expectations for interest rate cuts are an important positive factor. It indicates that the future liquidity environment may become more favorable, which forms the basis for medium- to long-term market confidence.

Of course, a single data point will not be definitive; the market will continue to observe subsequent inflation and employment data. But this report, which clearly signals "cooling," undoubtedly tilts the policy balance a bit more towards the looser side.

$BTC $ETH $BNB

#非农数据 #非农就业数据 #非农就业数据即将公布 #美联储降息 #加密市场观察

Recent data shows that the job market has not cooled significantly,
and the Federal Reserve has no urgent reason to let go.
In this context, it is difficult for the market to bet on a "quick pivot to dovish."

If non-farm data remains strong, even above expectations,
the consensus is that interest rate cut expectations will be delayed,
and the dollar and interest rates will remain high,
putting pressure on risk assets,
making the rise seem more like a better position for the bears.

Even if non-farm data is not particularly impressive,
as long as there is no "obvious weakening,"
it is also difficult for the market to experience a smooth bullish trend.
In a high interest rate environment, capital prefers defense rather than chasing prices.

The most common occurrence on non-farm night is not a trend reversal,
but rather a bounce followed by a pullback.
The true direction often appears only after emotions are digested.

In this market situation,
rather than rushing to go long, it is better to respect the trend and control positions.
The market is still there, but capital needs to survive first.

Tonight's non-farm data,
the key is not whether it will rise,
but whether it will be sold off after the rise.
#非农数据 #美国初请失业金人数 $BTC

【干货帖】一文看懂：每月牵动全球市场的“非农数据”是什么？

美国“非农数据”，全称“非农就业人口”，是每月第一个周五晚上（北京时间）全球投资者必看的经济头条。

1. 它是什么？

· 官方定义：美国非农业部门新增就业人数的月度变化。
· 核心数据：不只是新增就业数，还包括失业率、平均时薪等，是衡量美国经济冷热的“就业晴雨表”。

2. 为何如此重要？🤔

· 经济核心指标：直接反映美国企业活动和消费信心。
· 美联储的政策指南：强劲的就业和薪资增长，可能促使美联储加息以抑制通胀；反之，则可能为降息打开大门。
· 全球市场风向标：数据公布后，美元、美股、黄金、美债市场经常出现剧烈波动。

3. 什么时候发布？

· 时间：通常为每月第一个周五。
· 北京时间：冬令时21:30，夏令时20:30。

一句话总结：想看懂美联储政策、判断美元和美股大势，每月这份报告是绕不开的“必修课”。

你平时会关注这个数据吗？对市场有何影响？欢迎评论区聊聊！👇#非农数据

9:30 AM heavy data 🇺🇸 November seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population data released, fluctuations are coming, brothers! Is everyone ready?

(A decrease in non-farm numbers indicates that companies are reducing production, leading the economy into a recession. Conversely, a significant increase in non-agricultural employment numbers reflects a strong job market, which can enhance purchasing power and consumption levels, positively driving overall economic development. Additionally, the healthy development of the economy promotes the creation of new job positions. Therefore, favorable non-farm data has a positive impact on exchange rates, and vice versa.

In simple terms for us, if non-farm data exceeds expectations, it is good for the dollar and bad for Bitcoin; if it falls short of expectations, it is bad for the dollar and good for Bitcoin!

However, from the current perspective, the result is likely just a direct drop, followed by a spike before continuing to drop, depending on the specific data results!）
#非农数据

Non-farm data fully meets expectations, shorts continue, watch the position in the live broadcast! $BTC #非农数据

The non-farm data has just been released, and the employment population growth has exceeded expectations.
At the same time, it has slightly increased the chances of interest rate cuts in January next year, from 22% to 31%.
A big move has occurred; let's take a small position first, and for the short-term trend, we still look bearish.
Waiting for the US stock market to open! If you missed this trade, it’s okay; there will be plenty of opportunities later.
For those who like to trade in the medium to short term, continue to follow along; I will keep laying out strategies👇

#非农数据 $ETH #zec #非农数据影响

$ETH $BNB $BTC ⚠️ Non-farm Payrolls Night Showdown! The Bitcoin Rebound Code Lies in This Set of Data🔥

Tonight, the non-farm data is coming in strong, directly influencing the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy!
As the 'emotional amplifier' of global risk assets, Bitcoin will face the impact of liquidity waves—strong data may reinforce rate hike expectations and suppress prices, while weaker than expected data could ignite hopes for rate cuts and boost rebounds📈

The long-short battle has reached a fever pitch, and volatility is at its peak! Are you betting on a rise or are you bearish? Let's discuss in the comments～
#非农数据 #比特币行情 #美联储政策

Tomorrow's non-farm payroll data is a bit different and requires some attention.
This time the data actually combines the employment situation of October and November, because the U.S. government was shut down and the data for October was not counted at all. This means that the fluctuations in the numbers may be larger than usual, and the market's reactions could be more intense.

From the recent stance of the Federal Reserve and the overall environment, the possibility of optimistic data this time is not low. If the final reported increase in employment is good (for example, exceeding 150,000), coupled with the Federal Reserve's technical balance sheet expansion of several hundred billion each month (although not formal QE, money is indeed coming in), it could likely be a short-term positive for the stock and crypto markets.

Historical experience shows that: good employment + decent liquidity generally does not lead to poor performance in risk assets.
Remember to pay attention to the results tomorrow, as this data will have a significant impact on market sentiment in the following days. #美联储降息 #非农数据

#非农数据
Tonight at 9:30 let's battle on Non-Farm Payroll night

Yesterday I went out to play with my long position, I didn't watch the market and it dropped so much, luckily I only entered a total of 5% of my position, and there is still 5% available for additional purchases (I hold a maximum of 10% for each order). My entry position is similar to the doctor's, and for now, I can only wait to see tonight's Non-Farm Payroll night.

Will it be a crash or a surge?

U.S. Treasury yields have all fallen back, and expectations for further easing from the Federal Reserve are rising.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve has finally shown a comprehensive decline, with the 5-year yield falling by nearly 1%, marking a rare extent in recent times. This intense volatility clearly reflects the market's optimistic expectations for further easing policies from the Federal Reserve—investors are betting on more room for interest rate cuts to cope with potential signals of economic slowdown.

It is expected that tonight's non-farm payroll data will be weak, which will further strengthen the logic of the Federal Reserve turning to a more aggressive easing stance. If the job market shows signs of weakness, it will provide the Federal Reserve with the "ammunition" for policy adjustments, thereby boosting short-term sentiment for risk assets. In the short term, the U.S. stock market may welcome a wave of technical rebounds to digest recent pullback pressure.

However, in the medium to long term, a more notable "barometer" to watch is the yen exchange rate: if the yen strengthens against the dollar forming a clear upward trend (for example, breaking through key resistance levels), this will amplify global liquidity tightening concerns, dominating cross-asset allocation in the next 1-3 months. Investors are advised to closely monitor the yen's movements as a leading indicator of risk appetite reversal.

#美联储降息 #美债收益率 #非农数据

The United States will simultaneously release the non-farm employment reports for October and November today. Recent reports surrounding the job market have been nothing short of 'dramatic.' Due to the previous government shutdown and changes in decision-making bodies, data on unemployment rates and new job figures that should have been released at the beginning of the month have been delayed by several weeks. Interestingly, the newly released data covers the employment situation for two different months, but the statistical sample is incomplete due to reasons such as some federal employees being forced to stop working and some layoff compensations expiring. Mainstream media often headlines with 'missing numbers' and 'survey sample interference,' emphasizing the report's 'unreliability' and suggesting that the market may misinterpret it in haste.

The mainstream focus revolves around data gaps, yet overlooks the political implications hidden behind the 'delayed + merged' release. When the market hears 'missing data,' it usually interprets it as 'unknown.' However, for the market, this 'incompleteness' may actually make the policy side more susceptible to short-term fluctuations, potentially leading to unexpected actions at the next interest rate meeting. The real point of concern should be the unexpected changes in 'layoff numbers and labor force participation rates' and what they imply for substantive economic growth, which may lead some to misjudge employment trends, thinking that the labor market is weaker or stronger than expected.

In my view, this kind of incomplete data is just like opening a blind box; it can easily surprise you! So don't expect too much! It’s very likely to just fluctuate a bit and then return to a stable position! #比特币价格 #非农数据

Tonight's non-farm payroll is highly perplexing; how should Wall Street interpret it? The broadcast will start at 9:30 PM sharp, feel free to lock in early 🔒🔒🔒🔒🔒🔒🔒🔒🔒🔒🔒#加密市场观察 #巨鲸动向 #非农数据 $BTC

The golden double top signal is clear, and it's the right time to short at high positions before the non-farm data

Yesterday, gold hit the 4350 mark and encountered resistance, falling back, showing a short-term pressure situation. Today, the big non-farm data is about to be released, and it is highly likely that the market will maintain high-level fluctuations before the data lands. The risk of rising and falling needs to be closely monitored, and one should not blindly chase highs!

From the analysis of the 1-hour chart, gold has shown a double top pattern. If there is a lack of strength in the rebound today and it breaks below the key support of 4285, this top pattern will be formally established. It is worth noting that the gold price's second attempt to test the 4350 area has failed. If it still cannot break through and stabilize above this resistance, it may even form a triple top pattern on the 1-hour chart, and the adjustment pressure will further intensify.

The trading market is changing rapidly, and sticking to a single idea will eventually be eliminated by the market. The core of trading is not about "sticking", but about being flexible and responsive to the situation, following market rules to stand firm amid gold fluctuations. #黄金 #黄金交易 #非农数据

I have been contracting with fans, and my deepest feeling over the years can be summed up in one sentence:
Contracts are essentially a long-term confrontation with human nature.
When I first started bringing people along, I saw too many similar scenes.
When the market moved, the group became restless;
Some people just made a little profit and wanted to push their positions to the limit;
Others saw others calling long or short and immediately followed, afraid of missing out.
Once, the market accelerated suddenly.
I laid out my plans in advance, and the direction was right.
Prices surged, and the account curve quickly rose,
Many fans saw floating profits for the first time, and their eyes lit up.
At that moment, the most dangerous thing was not the pullback,
But rather, emotions began to take over operations.
The next day the market reversed.
I chose to reduce positions, take profits, and cut losses according to my strategy,
But there were still people unwilling to leave, wanting to "wait a bit longer."
As a result, the market offered no space for hesitation.
After that time, I repeatedly emphasized one thing:
I bring fans along not to gamble,
But to teach you how to survive in the market.
So my requirements are simple, yet harsh:
First, light positions are the bottom line.
No matter how much you've made, as long as one heavy position goes wrong, all previous efforts will be erased.
Second, stop-loss and take-profit must be executed.
The market will not turn back just because you are reluctant,
If you don't leave when you should, you'll only end up being forced out.
Third, being in cash is also part of trading.
Not every day has worthy opportunities to act,
Being able to resist the urge to move is itself a skill.
Over the years, I've seen some people make a comeback,
And I've seen many more disappear in the same market conditions.
Those who can continue to follow along
Have never been the most aggressive,
But rather the most disciplined ones.
I've always told fans one thing:
Don't be in a hurry to prove yourself,
First learn not to be eliminated by the market.
Contracts are not about who makes money faster,
But about who
Can accompany me in walking further together.
$PIPPIN $AVAAI #非农数据 #巨鲸动向

The latest non-farm data from the United States is about to be released, $BTC has fallen below 86,000 dollars in advance!

Yesterday, there was a net outflow of 357 million dollars from US stock spot ETFs, with signs of institutional fund withdrawal becoming evident. Market panic sentiment is rising, with the fear and greed index dropping to 20, creating a new low for this phase.

The options market is under additional pressure: there are a large number of sell puts around the strike price of 85,000 dollars, the success rate has rebounded, and structural support has strengthened. If the 85,000 dollars level is maintained, a rebound can be expected.

On-chain data analyst Murphy pointed out: large purchases of puts at the end of November reflect panic, and the 85,000 dollars level is now a key support. The strike price on December 26 is likely to hold at 85,000 dollars; if it falls below 80,000 dollars, it will accelerate downward.

The current BTC price is approximately 86,500 dollars, down 3.6%. The non-farm data may become a turning point, be cautious in the short term, and pay attention to the 80,000 dollars support!

#BTC #非农数据 #加密市场

Brothers are about to break free, should we take a gamble? This garbage imitation coin has trapped me for a few days
#非农数据

The market this week is definitely more exciting than having an affair with a married woman behind her husband's back, separated by a wall. It's non-farm payroll data and Japan's interest rate hike. Are you ready? Are you ready to face a margin call?
#非农数据 #日本加息