US November Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate Data Released! 🇺🇸
Key Data (November):
• Non-Farm Payrolls Added: Actual 64K (Expected 50K, Previous -105K)
• Unemployment Rate: Actual 4.6% (Expected 4.5%, Previous 4.4%)
Both are slightly higher than expected, bringing significant uncertainty to the market:
1. Non-Farm Higher than Expected: Indicates that the US economy is still growing moderately, and the job market is resilient. This may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious attitude towards rapid rate cuts to avoid stimulating the economy too early.
2. Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected: Risen to 4.6% (four-year high), showing that the labor market is gradually cooling, and the risk of a potential recession is rising. This further supports the Federal Reserve to continue cutting rates to guard against economic downturns.
These two pieces of data create a "long-short hedge" effect: economic resilience vs. labor market weakness, making it difficult for the market to form a consistent expectation. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in January thus remains low (current market pricing below 50%).
In addition, with the expectation that the Bank of Japan is set to raise rates to 0.75% this week (December 18-19), the pressure on the yen to strengthen has increased. Global stock markets experienced widespread declines yesterday, and negative sentiment has not yet been fully digested. After the data release today, the market reaction is somewhat negative, and it is not well-received. Close attention is on the evening opening trend of US stocks, and further statements from the Federal Reserve and December employment data will be more valuable for reference!