The current price of ETH at $2,930 is at a strong bearish technical structure (below all moving averages, 4h RSI oversold at 34.5) and a contradictory on-chain bullish signal (7-day net outflow of 258,000 ETH, institutional inflow of $140M). On the derivatives front, a 24h deleveraging of -5.78% accompanied by 87% long liquidations of $216M shows the failure of bulls, but the maximum pain point for options at $3,000 suggests the willingness of market makers to push higher. The macro environment is slightly warm (Federal Reserve rate cuts, DXY falling to a two-month low of 98.11, positive upgrades from Fusaka), but the risk of technical breakdown is high. The probability of short-term fluctuations is 70%, within the range of $2,823-$3,000; the direction of the breakout depends on the defense of the $2,911 support and the speed of OI recovery. $ETH #美国非农数据超预期

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