ETH is currently at a technical breaking point and a game-changing moment at the bottom of on-chain accumulation. The technical indicators across all time frames show moving averages suppressing prices (1h/4h/1d prices below all EMA/SMA), the 4h RSI is oversold (34.5), and a 24h deleveraging of -5.78% accompanied by $216M in long liquidations depicts a short-term pattern favoring bears. However, on-chain data shows a completely opposite narrative: a net outflow of 258,000 ETH over 7 days, a 30-day reserve decline of 5.64%, an average daily inflow of $140M into institutional ETFs, and whales accumulating against the trend (borrowing $85M to buy 38,600 ETH), all of which are typical signals of smart money bottom accumulation.
In the derivatives market, the funding rate has turned negative (Binance/OKX shorts paying longs), the maximum pain point for options is anchored at $3,000, and the liquidation heatmap shows $1.37B of short positions piled up at $3,048, suggesting that if the price stabilizes above $2,940, it will trigger a short squeeze. On a macro level, the Federal Reserve is lowering interest rates, the DXY has dropped to a two-month low of 98.11, and the Fusaka upgrade is boosting the L2 ecosystem, creating mid-term positive factors. However, structurally, CEX liquidity is contracting (Bybit down 7 days -12.41%) and daily active addresses have decreased by 8.6%, indicating weak short-term demand.
Operational recommendations:
Consolidation as the main scenario (40% probability): high selling and low buying in the $2,900-$2,950 range, with regular investment in spot combined with options hedging for bullish positioning (30% probability): building positions in increments at the lower Bollinger Band between $2,897-$2,911, targeting $3,000-$3,200, and a stop-loss at $2,870 for bears' defense (20% probability): if it breaks below $2,897, short to $2,823-$2,750, but position sizing must be strictly controlled (≤30%) key monitoring indicators: OI recovery speed (needs to rise above $39B+), whether the 4h RSI is bottoming out and recovering
In terms of time window, there is a possibility of testing the $2,950-$3,000 range before options expiration from 12/17-12/20; if it fails, it will enter a 7-10 day bottoming period waiting for a new round of catalysts (possibly end-of-year institutional reallocation or January ETF funds coming in). The core logic remains unchanged: trade bearish on technicals, and allocate bullish on-chain. $ETH #美国非农数据超预期
