1️⃣ Market Overview
Latest price: approximately $127.64 USD, 24-hour decline approximately 2.6%. Open Interest (OI): approximately $69 B, a decrease of about 1.5% compared to the previous day. Funding rate: overall slightly positive, Binance and Bybit longs pay slightly, Gate and Bitget shorts pay, indicating relatively balanced long and short costs. Technical analysis: 1-hour RSI approximately 52 (neutral), 4-hour RSI approximately 44 (weak). 1-hour MACD shows a golden cross, while the 4-hour is still in a death cross, suggesting a short-term rebound may occur, but medium-term still under downward pressure. The price is currently near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with increased volatility.
Liquidation heatmap shows:
Bullish liquidation concentrated in the $122‑$125 area, totaling about $2.7B. Bearish liquidation concentrated in the $128.3‑$134 area, totaling about $1.9B.
This means if the price falls below $125, it may trigger bullish liquidation leading to a brief rebound; if it breaks above $129‑$130, bearish liquidation pressure will increase, potentially leading to a rapid decline.
2️⃣ Bullish (long) strategy
Applicable scenarios: 1-hour golden cross appears, RSI rebounds above 55, and funding rates turn positive with open interest showing a rebound.
Key operation points
Entry price: Around $127.5‑$128. Leverage: Recommended 3‑5×, control single trade risk within 1‑2% of account assets. Stop loss: $126 (stop loss if it breaks critical support). Take profit: Level 1 $129.5 (touching the bearish liquidation wall), about 50% position. Level 2 $131 (breaking through the Bollinger upper band), about 30% position. Level 3 $132.5 (retesting the intraday high), about 20% position. Holding duration: 1‑4 hours, closely monitor 4-hour EMA and changes in funding rates.
Expected return/risk: Win rate about 60%, profit-loss ratio about 1:2.
3️⃣ Bearish (short) strategy
Applicable scenarios: 4-hour RSI below 45, MACD continues to expand in the negative zone, open interest continues to shrink, and negative funding rates deepen.
Key operation points
Entry price: $127‑$128. Leverage: Recommended 4‑6×, also control single trade risk within 1‑2% of account assets. Stop loss: $129.5 (if the price breaks through the bearish liquidation wall, stop loss will be triggered). Take profit: Level 1 $125.5 (concentration area for bullish liquidation), about 50% position. Level 2 $124 (Bollinger lower band and daily low), about 30% position. Level 3 $122.5 (below strong support level), about 20% position. Holding duration: 2‑8 hours, focus on the timing of funding rate settlement.
Expected return/risk: Win rate about 55%, profit-loss ratio about 1:2.5.
4️⃣ Risk management and monitoring points
Position control: Single position not exceeding 2% of account assets, overall leverage not exceeding 5×, avoid overnight positions.
General stop loss: If daily volatility exceeds 3% (regardless of direction), manual liquidation is recommended.
Key monitoring indicators:
Changes in funding rates (positive turning negative or negative turning positive).
Trends in open interest (OI) increase/decrease.
Pressure zones above/below the liquidation heatmap.
4-hour EMA and Bollinger band positions.
Important ecological news (Solana official Twitter, major exchange announcements).
External factors: The opening of the U.S. stock market, fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index, and significant updates in the Solana ecosystem projects may impact short-term movements.
5️⃣ Summary
Overall tendency: The current market shows a short-term bearish fluctuation, but the 1-hour golden cross provides limited long opportunities.
Suggestion: Prioritize bearish layouts, if a golden cross occurs and funding rates turn positive, with open interest warming up, consider trying a small long position in the $127.5‑$128 area.
Execution points: Strictly adhere to stop loss and take profit settings, monitor liquidation walls and funding rates in real-time, and keep positions within a safe range.
Disclaimer: The above strategies are based on publicly available real-time data and technical analysis for reference only and are not investment advice. Contract trading carries extremely high risks; please conduct your own due diligence (DYOR) and operate according to your own risk tolerance.$SOL #美国非农数据超预期
SOLUSDTPerp119.01-3.59%
