🧵A brief interpretation of tonight's non-farm payroll data impact:
1️⃣ First look at the core, not the surface
November non-farm payrolls +64,000, indeed better than the market expectation of 50,000;
But what we should really focus on is the unemployment rate 4.6%: not only higher than the expected 4.4%, but also a new high since September 2021.
👉 In my view, this is a clear signal that the labor market is beginning to loosen.
2️⃣ This is not "the economy is very strong," but "beginning to cool down"
If the U.S. economy were really that strong, the unemployment rate could not continuously rise.
The current state is:
• Companies are still hiring, but clearly more cautious
• Marginal jobs are disappearing
• Employment "quantity is still holding up, quality is declining"
📉 This is a typical lagging effect of policy starting to manifest.
3️⃣ So how will the market price it❓
After the data was released, federal funds futures immediately moved:
• Rate cut probability in January next year 22% → 31%
• Interest rate futures still bet on two rate cuts in 2026
• The easing expectation for next year is 58 basis points
👉 The market is using real money to tell you: it's not whether there will be a rate cut, but when.
4️⃣ What impact does this have on the crypto space❓
This combination of data has only one keyword: "liquidity turning point expectation."
• Non-farm payrolls didn't crash → Avoid immediate plummeting of risk assets
• Unemployment rate rising → Gives the Federal Reserve enough "reasons to pivot"
📈 This is one of the macro environments that the crypto market likes the most.
5️⃣ What should we keep an eye on next?
• Will future non-farm payrolls continue to be "weak yet stable"
• Will the unemployment rate stabilize above 4.5%
• Will Federal Reserve officials start to signal "no need for excessive tightening"
6️⃣ Conclusion
There is no need for everyone to FOMO over a single non-farm report, nor will there be panic.
The macro wind is slowly blowing towards risk assets.
Be patient, save your bullets, opportunities usually won't remind you with a trumpet.
