kiri to the moon

The biggest gain of Binance Blockchain Week #BinanceBlockchainWeek @CZ @Richard Teng

The Bank of Japan is expected to raise the benchmark interest rate this Friday to its highest level in thirty years, marking a strengthened confidence in achieving stable inflation targets. The market's focus has shifted from "whether to raise rates" to "how the future rate hike path will unfold".

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and his committee members may raise the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% at the end of the two-day meeting. Since Ueda issued a rare explicit signal earlier this month that a rate hike is approaching, expectations for a rate hike have continued to rise due to solid wage growth and the damage caused by U.S. tariffs being less than expected.

For these reasons, the secondary market saw a significant drop last night, with BTC showing a Christmas tree 🎄 chart again, wishing everyone a Merry Christmas in advance. Please stop selling, I need to support my family 😭#美国非农数据超预期

🧵A brief interpretation of tonight's non-farm payroll data impact:

1️⃣ First look at the core, not the surface
November non-farm payrolls +64,000, indeed better than the market expectation of 50,000;
But what we should really focus on is the unemployment rate 4.6%: not only higher than the expected 4.4%, but also a new high since September 2021.
👉 In my view, this is a clear signal that the labor market is beginning to loosen.

2️⃣ This is not "the economy is very strong," but "beginning to cool down"
If the U.S. economy were really that strong, the unemployment rate could not continuously rise.

The current state is:

• Companies are still hiring, but clearly more cautious
• Marginal jobs are disappearing
• Employment "quantity is still holding up, quality is declining"

📉 This is a typical lagging effect of policy starting to manifest.

3️⃣ So how will the market price it❓

After the data was released, federal funds futures immediately moved:
• Rate cut probability in January next year 22% → 31%
• Interest rate futures still bet on two rate cuts in 2026
• The easing expectation for next year is 58 basis points

👉 The market is using real money to tell you: it's not whether there will be a rate cut, but when.

4️⃣ What impact does this have on the crypto space❓

This combination of data has only one keyword: "liquidity turning point expectation."
• Non-farm payrolls didn't crash → Avoid immediate plummeting of risk assets
• Unemployment rate rising → Gives the Federal Reserve enough "reasons to pivot"

📈 This is one of the macro environments that the crypto market likes the most.

5️⃣ What should we keep an eye on next?
• Will future non-farm payrolls continue to be "weak yet stable"
• Will the unemployment rate stabilize above 4.5%
• Will Federal Reserve officials start to signal "no need for excessive tightening"

6️⃣ Conclusion
There is no need for everyone to FOMO over a single non-farm report, nor will there be panic.
The macro wind is slowly blowing towards risk assets.
Be patient, save your bullets, opportunities usually won't remind you with a trumpet.
#美国非农数据超预期
$BTC

This week, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. To be honest, there isn't much to interpret about it; the market had already priced it in.

What really raises concerns is something that many people have overlooked👇

The Federal Reserve will launch a Treasury Reserve Management Purchase Program within the next 30 days.

Let's look at a few key points:

• Initial scale: $40 billion

• Start date: December 12

• Reserve growth may continue until April 2026

It's not called QE, but the effect is very close to QE.

As long as the Federal Reserve buys Treasury bonds, the reserves in the banking system will increase, and system liquidity will improve.

In my view, this is more like a low-key, gradual "invisible QE."

More importantly, it's about direction.

For the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been doing one thing: shrinking the balance sheet + withdrawing liquidity.

Now, the balance sheet is shifting from "one-way contraction" to a phase of net injection.

This is not about scale; it's about a turning point.

We have always emphasized a simple logic:

👉 Liquidity > Interest Rates > Fundamentals

Historically, almost every time, when bank reserves start to rise and the balance sheet stabilizes, risk assets respond in advance.

At the same time, the interest rate market is also aligning with this signal.

Federal funds futures have already priced in:

• 2 more rate cuts before 2026

• A total of about 50 basis points

What does this mean?

It means that the policy environment may be more benign than the current consensus in the market.

This is especially important for the cryptocurrency market.

$BTC does not rely on cash flow pricing; one of its core drivers is the tightness of U.S. dollar liquidity.

Once the Federal Reserve shifts from withdrawal to injection, even if it's "invisible," the market will begin to price it in ahead of time. For example, $ETH $ENA will likely perform well.

Especially when:

• After the halving

• Institutional participation continues to increase

• The market is still in a phase of emotional recovery

So, the conclusion is quite simple:

This is not a large QE like in 2020,

But it is likely a—underestimated liquidity turning point.

And the market often starts moving before most people realize it.
#美联储降息

Got it, now it's falling even more severely 📉😭
#美联储降息

Good news landing is bad news 😢
Everyone is now starting to worry that the Federal Reserve will become a one-man show like Trump 😂
You always have countless reasons to dump the market 😭
Invest some in ENA and aster 8️⃣
#美联储降息

Today, Yili Hua posted on Twitter that, "For long-term spot investment, a few hundred dollars doesn't make a difference. The reason ETH is currently undervalued is due to expectations of interest rate cuts and monetary easing from a macro perspective, along with continuously crypto-friendly policies. From an industry standpoint, the long-term growth of stablecoins and the trend of financial on-chain are evident. The fundamentals of ETH are completely different now." With the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in December already set, looking ahead to next year's midterm elections, Trump will theoretically boost the economy for electoral gains, and the overall macro expectations are there. 😍 From a technical perspective, Ethereum is pulling up in sync with the market. Ethereum has already led the market in breaking through the daily MA30 moving average, marking a pivotal point between bulls and bears, representing strength. Last night, a large bullish candle continued to push prices above 3300, briefly approaching 3400, and has currently pulled back to around 3320 for consolidation. The daily MA5 has crossed above the MA10 and MA30 moving averages, while MA10 has crossed above MA30, together forming a bullish signal of a golden triangle. Currently, the daily MACD golden cross is continuously opening upwards, and the KDJ three-line golden cross is diverging upward, with the bulls in control, maintaining a bullish outlook on pullbacks. The next structural resistance can be seen around 3650. Here is a strong structural resistance where tops and bottoms convert. Support is around 3250, and resistance is around 3650.

Recently, I've been suffering losses, but as the market improves, I want to learn and exchange ideas with you all. I've started a group for discussions. Link: 猪脚饭资本, please take care of me 🙏
#加密市场反弹

Aster destroyed 80 million, why is it still dropping📉❓
#美联储重启降息步伐

Woke up confused
Everything is rising
#加密市场回调

CHZ is relatively strong among altcoins; in such a poor market, it has not fallen into a gradual decline like 'grandma going down the stairs.' Instead, the main forces are controlling it within a relatively stable range. With the expectation of speculation around next year's World Cup, the strength in the next six months is unlikely to be poor. This time, we will win again🐴

Short-term strategy:

Target: CHZ

Cycle: 1-3 weeks

Recommended Index: 3.5 stars

Entry Position: 0.28-0.27 (enter in batches)

Take Profit Position: 0.30-0.32 (take profit in batches)

Stop Loss Position: 0.26
#加密市场回调

Lost my family members

When will the days of losing money every day come to an end?#加密市场反弹 $BTC

The narrative of mining machine shipment
How can we do without $KAS
Ant warehouse chase again
Stop loss set at 0.46
Feeling very strong brothers
#加密市场回调

Didn’t watch over the weekend, how is Bitcoin at 87000, is it a reversal or a rebound $BTC #加密市场观察

Please stop selling, I need to support my family
Please stop selling, I need to support my family
Please stop selling, I need to support my family.
Please stop selling, I need to support my family
Please stop selling, I need to support my family.
$ASTER #加密市场观察

Just added more positions and opened $ZEC #加密市场回调

Multiple long positions, the black man holds the second largest position,
Privacy coins may really be different this year
$ZEC
#加密市场回调

There are still 25 points to break even……
This journey has not been easy, October 11 at most -258%🥹
$ASTER
#加密市场回调

It feels like $ASTER is about to get windy, starting to stubbornly add some positions to lower the average cost so that I can break even a bit faster. DCA is the dumbest investment strategy but also the most useful. I hope this time it's really different 8️⃣ family members #加密市场回调