Zhuoyuan 12.17 Gold Morning Review

Yesterday's spot gold showed wide fluctuations, driven by the dual forces of rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate, with gold prices once surging to around $4350/ounce, just a step away from the more than seven-week high set last Friday. However, as market risk aversion quickly receded, gold prices significantly retraced most of the intraday gains, ultimately closing with a slight increase of only 0.1%, at $4304.91/ounce. The core driver of this market reversal is the substantive progress made in talks between American officials and Ukrainian President Zelensky, which directly weakened market demand for safe-haven buying. Meanwhile, global traders are focusing on the upcoming release of significant US employment data, the performance of which will be a key clue for judging the direction of the Federal Reserve's subsequent monetary policy. As of Tuesday (December 16), during the Asian market's early session, spot gold maintained a slight upward trend, trading at around $4350.92/ounce.

From a technical analysis perspective, after breaking through the symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern, gold prices continued their upward momentum, with the overall technical pattern leaning bullish. In terms of resistance above, the area around $4350/ounce constitutes a short-term pressure point; once this level is effectively broken, gold prices are expected to challenge the historical peak around $4381/ounce.

On the support side, the previously broken neck line at $4250/ounce has turned into the primary support level, followed by the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) at $4233/ounce; if gold prices further decline, the range of $4180-$4170/ounce is likely to trigger new buying power.

Momentum indicators also support the upward movement of gold prices: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from the overbought zone near 80 to above 50, with upward momentum showing some decline; the ADX indicator hovers in the range of 20-25, reflecting that the current market trend strength is insufficient, and the market is in a consolidation phase, without forming a clear strong unilateral trend.

Go long near gold $4290-$4300. The target is $4320-$4350; a volume breakthrough would indicate a new high, and if not continued, lighten up on short positions.

The above analysis is Zhuoyuan's personal analysis; investment carries risks, and everything is subject to real transactions $BTC $ETH #美国非农数据超预期