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🔥🔥🔥Did the shutdown actually become a 'divine assist'? The accuracy of non-farm data unexpectedly soared!
‼️ Did the U.S. government shutdown make non-farm data more accurate? It seems absurd, yet it has become a reality! Due to the delay in release caused by the shutdown, the employment reports for September and November unexpectedly gained an extended data collection period, with response rates soaring—September's collection rate reached 80.2%, and both October and November exceeded 73.8%, the highest in five years!
‼️ The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that companies continued to submit electronic reports, and after the restart, they received an extension to respond, resulting in more complete data. Economists pointed out that a higher collection rate means smaller revision margins, and the initial values may be closer to the truth than before.
❗️ 'The game between timeliness and accuracy has always been a difficult problem,' admitted former director Erica Groshen. And this time, the 'forced delay' may have just broken the balance. Michael Horrigan bluntly stated: Waiting an extra week or two may significantly shrink the revision margin.
🚨 The suspense continues: The December report will reveal the truth behind the revisions. Prior to this, Trump angrily denounced the data as a 'major error' and even sought to replace the director, casting a political shadow over this data dispute. The annual benchmark revision is more likely to set a record low, will the storm rise again?
⚠️🔥 This time, will the 'side effects' of the shutdown restore trust in the non-farm data? Stay tuned for the reveal!
