12.17 BTC Midday Market Analysis
I. Logical Support (Strong Logical Closed Loop)
1. Trend Foundation: The daily chart is still in a descending channel since the October high, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement, and the price consistently below EMA7/EMA30/EMA120. The weekly downtrend remains unchanged, but there have been consecutive long lower wicks on the 4-hour chart, and the RSI has exited the oversold zone, indicating a weak repair demand in the short term.
2. Core Long/Short Game: The support zone around 85500-86000 is a confluence of Fibonacci retracement and previous lows, with three tests showing the bulls' defensive intent; the resistance above at the 90000 integer level plus the 90500 previous consolidation area forms strong pressure, constrained by a descending trend line, making the rebound weak.
3. Macro and Market Linkage: The Federal Reserve's halt in balance sheet reduction provides liquidity support, but expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December have caused volatility in the bond market, potentially suppressing risk assets; the U.S. stock market's cryptocurrency sector is rising (Hut8 up nearly 4%), significantly correlating with BTC, providing marginal funding buffers.
4. Technical Signal Guidance: The daily RSI shows a bullish divergence (new price low, higher RSI low), indicating weakening downward momentum; the 4-hour MACD histogram is shortening, with initial signs of a short-term repair appearing, yet still running below the zero axis, leaning bearish, and the 1-hour Bollinger Bands are constricting, awaiting directional choice.
II. Trend Qualitative (Precise Positioning)
Short-term: Weak rebound repair in a downtrend, not a reversal signal! The core characteristic is "support has defense, rebound lacks strength," with the long/short game focusing on the 86000-90000 range, lacking volume support makes it difficult to break strong resistance. It is highly likely to be dominated by oscillation and repair, with downward pressure remaining after the rebound.
III. Practical Operational Goals (High Feasibility)
1. Bullish Strategy (buy low, strictly control positions)
- Entry Range: 86000-86500 (key support area)
- Target: First target 87800-88000
2. Bearish Strategy (short on rebounds, core main line)
- Entry Range: 89500-90000 (strong resistance area)
- Target: First target 87500-87000
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