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12.17 BTC Midday Market Analysis

I. Logical Support (Strong Logical Closed Loop)

1. Trend Foundation: The daily chart is still in a descending channel since the October high, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement, and the price consistently below EMA7/EMA30/EMA120. The weekly downtrend remains unchanged, but there have been consecutive long lower wicks on the 4-hour chart, and the RSI has exited the oversold zone, indicating a weak repair demand in the short term.
2. Core Long/Short Game: The support zone around 85500-86000 is a confluence of Fibonacci retracement and previous lows, with three tests showing the bulls' defensive intent; the resistance above at the 90000 integer level plus the 90500 previous consolidation area forms strong pressure, constrained by a descending trend line, making the rebound weak.
3. Macro and Market Linkage: The Federal Reserve's halt in balance sheet reduction provides liquidity support, but expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December have caused volatility in the bond market, potentially suppressing risk assets; the U.S. stock market's cryptocurrency sector is rising (Hut8 up nearly 4%), significantly correlating with BTC, providing marginal funding buffers.
4. Technical Signal Guidance: The daily RSI shows a bullish divergence (new price low, higher RSI low), indicating weakening downward momentum; the 4-hour MACD histogram is shortening, with initial signs of a short-term repair appearing, yet still running below the zero axis, leaning bearish, and the 1-hour Bollinger Bands are constricting, awaiting directional choice.

II. Trend Qualitative (Precise Positioning)

Short-term: Weak rebound repair in a downtrend, not a reversal signal! The core characteristic is "support has defense, rebound lacks strength," with the long/short game focusing on the 86000-90000 range, lacking volume support makes it difficult to break strong resistance. It is highly likely to be dominated by oscillation and repair, with downward pressure remaining after the rebound.

III. Practical Operational Goals (High Feasibility)

1. Bullish Strategy (buy low, strictly control positions)

- Entry Range: 86000-86500 (key support area)
- Target: First target 87800-88000

2. Bearish Strategy (short on rebounds, core main line)

- Entry Range: 89500-90000 (strong resistance area)
- Target: First target 87500-87000
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12.17 ETH Midday Market Analysis

I. Logical Support (Strong Logical Loop)

1. Trend Continuity: ETH is still in a downward channel since the high point of 3170, with the daily MA5/MA10 death cross moving down, prices below all moving averages, bearish pattern unchanged, but the 4-hour level has formed a double bottom rebound from 2870, and the short-term pullback strength is slowing down.
2. Core of Bull-Bear Game: The double bottom support at 2870-2890 is effective, with a quick rebound after multiple spikes yesterday, indicating the bulls have defensive intentions; the strong resistance is formed by the integer level of 3000 + the middle track of the 3070 Bollinger Bands, with multiple unsuccessful rebounds limiting the upward space.
3. Market Linkage and Sentiment: Closely linked with BTC (currently BTC is oscillating around 87500), the crypto fear and greed index is nearing "extreme fear", but the U.S. stock market crypto concept sector is rising (Hut8 up nearly 4%), providing marginal funding support.
4. Technical Indicator Signals: The 4-hour RSI has exited the oversold area, and MACD shows signs of a hidden golden cross, indicating short-term repair demand; the 1-hour Bollinger Bands are closing, about to face a directional choice, and after a volume-less oscillation during the day, a small volume increase may come.

II. Trend Qualitative Analysis (Precise Positioning)

Short-term: Oscillation repair market within a downward channel, not a trend reversal! The core characteristics are "support below, pressure above", with the bull-bear game concentrated in the 2920-3030 range. Breaking through the previous levels is unlikely to lead to a large-scale unilateral market, and it is highly probable to maintain range oscillation, so beware of the risk of "rebound inducing more buying".

III. Practical Operation Targets (High Feasibility)

1. Bullish Strategy (Focus on buying low, do not chase high)

- Entry Range: 2900-2930 (pullback to yesterday's low point + lower edge of oscillation)
- Target: First target 2980-3000

2. Bearish Strategy (Short on rebound, do not chase low)

- Entry Range: 3020-3050 (previous support turned resistance area)
- Target: First target 2960-2950
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12.14 ETH Afternoon Market Analysis

I. Logical Support

1. Macroeconomic: After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, expectations for easing have cooled, and there is a lack of liquidity in risk assets, with ETH lacking incremental funds.
2. Technical: Narrow compression between 3050-3180, with resistance encountered at 3150-3180 on rebounds, and support at 3050 during declines, with low volatility.
3. Market: Significant divergence between bulls and bears, with selling pressure concentrated above and support from chips below, leading to light trading.

II. Trend Qualitative

Bearish oscillation, core range 3050-3180, weak rebound, shifting focus downward, with no reversal signals.

III. Practical Targets

1. Short (Preferred)

- Entry: Resistance at 3150-3180 / Break below 3080 and retest 3090-3100
- Target: 3080→3050

2. Long (Cautious)

- Entry: Stop decline at 3050-3060 (Bullish engulfing + increased volume)
- Target: 3100-3120→3150-3160
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12.14 BTC Afternoon Market Analysis

I. Logical Support

1. Macroeconomic Negative Pressure: On 12.13, the U.S. Treasury 20/30-year yield broke 4.8%, combined with a collective decline in European and American stock markets, leading to increased risk aversion in risk assets, with BTC being dragged down as a high-volatility asset; the internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts have intensified, liquidity expectations are tightening, further suppressing the price elasticity of cryptocurrencies.
2. Technical Short Dominance: The hourly chart has broken below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and is opening downwards, with the MACD fast and slow lines deeply entrenched below the zero axis, and short-term moving averages in a bearish arrangement, indicating weak rebound potential; the 4-hour level is at the end of convergence consolidation, with a window for a trend change opening, but bearish signals dominate.
3. Market Liquidity Exhaustion: Recently, the market has frequently “painted doors,” with weakened long and short battles, insufficient active transactions, making it difficult to support an effective rebound, likely continuing a weak oscillation downward rhythm.

II. Trend Qualitative Analysis

Short-term (as of 17:30) oscillation is slightly bearish, with a core operating range of 89500-90500, likely to first suppress and then exhibit weak oscillation, with a higher probability of testing key support downwards than breaking upwards. No bullish reversal signals have emerged at the end of the convergence, with macroeconomic and technical resonance being bearish, making it difficult to break the upper resistance without clear incremental capital entering the market.

III. Practical Goals (Precise Entry + Risk Control)

1. Short Strategy (Priority):

- Entry: Light position entry in the 90200-90400 range, if the hourly chart breaks below 89800, increase the position (confirming the break);
- Take Profit: First target 89500, second target 89200 (if not reached by 17:30, take profit at observed level);

2. Long Strategy (Cautious):

- Entry: Only enter a light position when a bullish engulfing candle + MACD bottom divergence appears in the 89500-89600 range;
- Take Profit: 90000-90200 (reduce immediately upon pressure, no prolonged battle)
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12.13 ETH precise point has been in hand! In this volatile market, here's how to directly profit

ETH is stuck at the 3100 mark, are you buying and it drops, selling and it rises?
Staring at the candlestick for a long time, only to end up missing out and being trapped?

Don't panic! 3080 is the strong support at the lower Bollinger Band, 3150 is the short-term resistance, 3050-3150 is the golden range for volatility, and there won't be a one-sided market until it breaks!

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