Family! Tonight, the crypto circle is likely to collectively 'stay up and party' once the Non-Farm Payroll data, this 'deity,' makes its entrance. The K-line charts in our hands will probably put on a roller coaster show; those who dare to close their eyes and sleep are true heart king contenders!
First, a little background for new followers: I have been immersed in the crypto market for five years, from chasing highs at the bull peak to bottom-fishing at the bear trough, witnessing too many scenes of 'Non-Farm Payroll night godly moments' and 'returning to the pre-liberation era overnight.' Tonight's uniqueness lies in the fact that the U.S. stock market has already delivered a 'deep-water bomb' to the market, dropping over 600 points for two consecutive days, just like the first domino falling; now the entire market is watching the Non-Farm Payroll data as the 'fuse.'
Why can non-farm payroll data directly lead the cryptocurrency market? The core logic is simple: the 'risk aversion instinct' of capital. US stocks serve as a 'barometer' for global risk assets, while cryptocurrencies are still categorized as highly volatile 'younger brothers'. If tonight's data exceeds expectations, simply put, it means more jobs and stable wage growth, which will send a signal to the market that 'the economy is not that bad'. US stocks will likely take a breather and rebound, and the hot money hiding in cash will flow back in, allowing our cryptocurrency market to benefit and 'bounce upwards'; but if the data disappoints, it is equivalent to pouring a bucket of cold water on an already tense market. Not only will US stocks continue to fall, but those positions in the crypto space that are highly leveraged may be forced to liquidate in a chain reaction, potentially creating a big pit. At that time, it will truly be a 'slow hands, no chance' stampede scene.
Don't panic, here comes the practical information. I will clearly lay out the response strategies for these three situations:
The first type, data exceeds expectations and rebounds. Don't rush to chase the high! In the early stages of a rebound, there is a high probability of speculative fervor, especially for popular coins that have fallen sharply beforehand, which may first pull a wave of false bullishness. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to key support levels and then cautiously test with a small position, ensuring that the position does not exceed 20% of total funds; greed will lead to downfall.
The second type, data falls short of expectations. At this time, it's most taboo to 'catch the bottom halfway up the mountain'. If you have profitable positions, set your profit-taking line in advance; protecting your principal is more important than anything else. If you're trapped, don't blindly add to your position; first check if there's a problem with the fundamentals of the cryptocurrency. For quality coins, you can wait for the downward trend to slow before adding in batches, while for junk coins, you should cut losses decisively, as holding them will only occupy your funds.
The third type, data fluctuates as expected. This kind of 'grinding' market is most suitable for short-term trading, buying low and selling high to earn the difference, but remember to 'enter and exit quickly', don't get attached to battles, and don't drink too much coffee while watching the market at night; staying up until dawn can lead to hasty and chaotic operations.
Honestly, I've seen too many friends stumble on non-farm payroll nights, not because the data is too crazy, but because their emotions collapsed first. They chase when they see a rise and cut losses when they see a drop, completely led by the market. Remember, the cryptocurrency market has never been about 'gambling on size', but about 'competing in cognition'. No matter how the market moves tonight, if you control your position and set your stop-loss appropriately, you've already won against 80% of the people.
Tonight I will monitor the market throughout, and as soon as the data is released, I will post interpretations in the comments section. If you have specific cryptocurrencies that you're unsure about, just type the code in the comments, and I'll help you analyze it when I'm free. If you find this article useful, please follow and give a thumbs up.
