The true essence of trading is not intelligence, but being 'stupid' enough to stick to simple rules.
Whenever I tell others that my trading system has a win rate close to 100%, I always see doubt in their eyes. But when I show them my real trading records, doubt turns into curiosity: 'How did you do it?'
My method is disappointingly simple: no complicated indicators, no insider information, and no magical predictions. It's just a set of strictly followed 'stupid methods' that turned me from a repeatedly losing trader into a professional trader with ten years of stable profits.
Today, I want to share this 'stupid' method that has helped me earn 10 million. This is not a quick-rich scheme, but a system that allows you to survive in this market for the long term.
1. Asset Selection: Only deal with 'two coins' and give up 99% of opportunities.
There are always coins that surge in the crypto market every day, but I only focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two core assets.
Why be so limited? Because what truly allows you to make big money is not how many opportunities you seize, but how many traps you avoid.
I've seen too many traders chase this altcoin today and play that new concept tomorrow, resulting in their funds continuously shrinking due to frequent switching. I only operate repeatedly on the two assets I am most familiar with and have the best liquidity.
Liquidity is the best umbrella for retail investors. The depth of Bitcoin and Ethereum is sufficient to avoid severe fluctuations due to a single order, and they will not go to zero overnight. In the crypto market, living long is 100 times more important than making money quickly.
2. Trend Judgment: A single moving average determines long or short.
My trend judgment system is simple to the point of being ridiculous: I only look at the MA60 moving average on the 4-hour chart.
If the price is above MA60, I only consider going long; if the price is below MA60, I only consider going short. There is no middle ground, no subjective assumptions.
Many people mock this method for being too primitive, but they overlook the key point: the simpler the system, the easier it is to execute, and the less it is affected by subjective emotions.
When MA60 continuously suppresses the price, I choose to short on rebounds to near the moving average; when MA60 supports the price, I wait for a pullback to near the moving average to go long. This does not mean I can buy at the lowest point or sell at the highest point, but it ensures that I am always on the right side of the trend.
3. Position Management: Never go all in at once.
My position management principle can be summed up in eight words: Enter in batches, maintain consistent positions.
Each time I open a position, the amount is fixed at 5% of total funds, and the maximum daily loss limit is 2% of total funds. This means that even if I continuously make wrong judgments, I will lose a maximum of 2% in one day, and will never touch the principal.
In practice, I use the three-batch building method:
First batch: Enter 30% when the signal appears.
Second batch: Add 40% after the price moves in the expected direction.
Third batch: Add 30% after trend confirmation.
There should be at least a 4-hour interval between each batch, giving the market enough time to validate my judgment. If the direction of the first batch proves wrong, I will cut losses decisively, rather than blindly averaging down the cost.
4. Stop Loss Strategy: Pinning is a friend, not an enemy.
I view stop losses as the best friend, as it allows me to dare to place orders, knowing that the worst outcome is controllable.
My stop loss settings are unique: I don’t set stop losses at the previous low/high, but rather below the extreme point of pinning.
For example, if the support level is at 50,000, and the pin's lowest point reaches 49,500, I set my stop loss below 49,000. This gives the market enough room for fluctuation without being washed out by normal volatility.
More importantly, I set 'double stop losses' for each trade:
Price stop loss: Hard stop loss set based on technical levels.
Capital stop loss: Maximum loss per trade not exceeding 1% of total funds.
Whichever triggers first shall prevail. This ensures that I won't suffer a fatal blow due to unexpected black swan events.
5. The Art of Taking Profits: Let profits run, but don't forget to harvest in a timely manner.
Taking profits is harder than entering, so I use a dynamic profit-taking strategy:
Profit 30%: Recoup half of the principal and let the remaining position run with zero risk.
Profit 60%: Move the stop loss to the cost line to ensure no loss.
Profit over 100%: For every 20% increase, move the stop loss up by 10%.
Cutting losses and letting profits run relies on the premise that you have already locked in some profits. I've seen too many people turn profits into losses simply because they were too greedy to harvest.
For strong trending markets, I also use moving average tracking for profit-taking: Hold as long as the price remains above the 4-hour MA60; once it breaks below, immediately close half the position; if the bounce does not exceed the previous high, then clear the position.
6. Daily Review: Successful traders are the best students.
I spend 30 minutes every night reviewing the day’s trades; this is not just a formality, but a compulsory course.
The review content includes:
Check whether each trade complies with the system rules.
Record the emotional state when opening a position.
Analyze whether the stop loss/take profit settings are reasonable.
Statistics on daily win rate and profit-loss ratio.
Every Saturday morning, I also conduct a weekly review, looking back at the week’s trading data and checking whether the system needs fine-tuning. The trading system is not static; it needs to evolve with the market.
7. Mindset Management: Trading ultimately is a practice.
Technical skills are easy to learn, but mindset is hard to cultivate. I check my emotional state before trading every day; if I have the following situations, I stop trading for the day:
Less than 6 hours of sleep.
Feeling irritable or overly excited.
Overconfidence after consecutive profits.
Eager to recover losses after consecutive losses.
There are always opportunities in the market; what is lacking is people who can survive in the market for the long term. I view trading as a marathon, not a sprint.
8. Black Technology: Timing for Violent Profit-Taking.
When the following extreme situations occur, I will activate the 'violent profit-taking' mode:
If it breaks below the 5-day line, reduce the position by 30% first; this is to prevent the last wash before a surge. If all three lines are broken, clear the position immediately; holding on for even one second is a risk.
Such extreme market conditions may only occur 2-3 times a year, but each time it helps me preserve most of my profits. In the crypto market, surviving is more important than making money.
Conclusion: Slow is fast, less is more.
My 'stupid method' seems simple, but the difficulty lies in persistence. It doesn’t have the excitement of chasing highs and selling lows, nor the thrill of getting rich overnight; it only involves strict execution day after day.
But it is precisely this 'stupidity' that has allowed me to achieve stable growth in assets over the past decade. The crypto market is full of stars, but lacks longevity.
If you can accept getting rich slowly, the market will ultimately reward your patience. Give me a follow.@币圈罗盘 Let's survive in this market together for the long term!#巨鲸动向 $BTC $ETH
