Powell's Speech Highlights:

1｜Interest Rate Decision

• FOMC lowered the interest rate by 25bp as expected, with a voting result of 9–3, indicating a widening divergence.

2｜Future Path

• The dot plot maintains the original judgment: there will only be one more rate cut in 2026 (25bp).

3｜Policy Language Shifts to 'Pause Possible'

• The statement includes 'further adjustments in magnitude and timing', suggesting the pace of rate cuts may slow down.

4｜Nature of Inflation

• Powell rarely made it clear:

'Without tariffs, inflation would have been around 2%.'

5｜Tariff Shock Timeline

• The inflation impact caused by tariffs will:

• Peak in Q1 2026

• Significantly weaken in the second half of 2026

6｜Employment Risks Qualitatively Defined as 'Significantly Downward'

• Non-farm employment may be overestimated by about 60,000;

• The real situation may be a monthly negative growth of 20,000 since April.

7｜Economic Data Contains 'Distortion'

• Due to the government shutdown, the credibility of recent data has decreased, and there are divergences in employment and inflation estimates within the FOMC.

8｜Balance Sheet Expansion Will Restart

• The Federal Reserve will resume buying short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) to restore 'adequate' reserves.

• The purchase scale will 'remain high for several months' going forward.

9｜Interest Rate Environment

• Powell: Rate hikes are not anyone's baseline expectation.

10｜Economic Growth Outlook

• Growth for 2025–2026 is slightly revised upwards, partly due to the shutdown causing 'period shift' in growth.

• Growth next year remains in the 'low but stable' range of around 1.7%.

11｜Interpretation of Market Reaction

• The rise in Treasury yields is not due to inflation concerns, but rather 'higher growth expectations or other factors'.

12｜Powell's Own Term Issues

• For the first time hinted: 'I am focused on my remaining term as chair.'

• Implied he may leave after May 2026.

Summary:

Interest rate cuts implemented, pace slowing, employment risks rising, inflation driven by tariffs, the Fed restarting balance sheet expansion to stabilize liquidity, policy framework shifting from 'anti-inflation' to 'balancing risks',

Key focus on point eight, in line with what was mentioned yesterday, they have started purchasing $40 billion in short-term bonds every month, liquidity support has begun. #BitcoinBTC##DigitalCurrency##CryptoCircle##Altcoins##Blockchain##EthereumETH##bnb#美国非农数据超预期 @币安Binance华语