白探长日记

Now the market situation is quite similar to that of February to March before, with extremely poor market sentiment, everyone bearish, and institutions becoming the biggest buyers, aggressively buying at every key point.

Recently, it has been the same; when the price rises a bit, large holders sell heavily, and within 10 minutes it seems like it has been programmed, buying sharply again.

Afterwards, it was revealed that institutional buying had increased. But this time, their buying power was much stronger than before, for example, ETH#Bitcoin btc##cryptocurrency##coin circle##altcoins##blockchain##blockchain#美国非农数据超预期 @币安Binance华语

顶级做市商暴雷，传了两个月，怎么还没结论?

一方面，做市商自己还在持续砸盘回血、做自救，能拖一天是一天；

另一方面，场外还在跟交易所拉扯：怎么补窟窿、怎么赔，都是谈判桌上的筹码。

命都悬一线，公开承认等于自杀。

时间换空间，

所以你别问，问就是否认。#美国非农数据超预期 @币安Binance华语

Powell's Speech Highlights:

1｜Interest Rate Decision
• FOMC lowered the interest rate by 25bp as expected, with a voting result of 9–3, indicating a widening divergence.

2｜Future Path
• The dot plot maintains the original judgment: there will only be one more rate cut in 2026 (25bp).

3｜Policy Language Shifts to 'Pause Possible'
• The statement includes 'further adjustments in magnitude and timing', suggesting the pace of rate cuts may slow down.

4｜Nature of Inflation
• Powell rarely made it clear:
'Without tariffs, inflation would have been around 2%.'

5｜Tariff Shock Timeline
• The inflation impact caused by tariffs will:
• Peak in Q1 2026
• Significantly weaken in the second half of 2026

6｜Employment Risks Qualitatively Defined as 'Significantly Downward'
• Non-farm employment may be overestimated by about 60,000;
• The real situation may be a monthly negative growth of 20,000 since April.

7｜Economic Data Contains 'Distortion'
• Due to the government shutdown, the credibility of recent data has decreased, and there are divergences in employment and inflation estimates within the FOMC.

8｜Balance Sheet Expansion Will Restart
• The Federal Reserve will resume buying short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) to restore 'adequate' reserves.
• The purchase scale will 'remain high for several months' going forward.

9｜Interest Rate Environment
• Powell: Rate hikes are not anyone's baseline expectation.

10｜Economic Growth Outlook
• Growth for 2025–2026 is slightly revised upwards, partly due to the shutdown causing 'period shift' in growth.
• Growth next year remains in the 'low but stable' range of around 1.7%.

11｜Interpretation of Market Reaction
• The rise in Treasury yields is not due to inflation concerns, but rather 'higher growth expectations or other factors'.

12｜Powell's Own Term Issues
• For the first time hinted: 'I am focused on my remaining term as chair.'
• Implied he may leave after May 2026.

Summary:

Interest rate cuts implemented, pace slowing, employment risks rising, inflation driven by tariffs, the Fed restarting balance sheet expansion to stabilize liquidity, policy framework shifting from 'anti-inflation' to 'balancing risks',

Key focus on point eight, in line with what was mentioned yesterday, they have started purchasing $40 billion in short-term bonds every month, liquidity support has begun. #BitcoinBTC##DigitalCurrency##CryptoCircle##Altcoins##Blockchain##EthereumETH##bnb#美国非农数据超预期 @币安Binance华语

The market is now focused on whether to 'lower interest rates or not', but the real drama is whether the 'Federal Reserve will reopen the taps'.

If they start buying short-term treasury bonds, that will inject liquidity into the market, which is beneficial for City G and the cryptocurrency market.

The key is not how much the rates are lowered, but whether the money is increasing again, because liquidity is the core engine of a bull market. $BTC @币安Binance华语

1. 未来十年最重要事儿是赚大钱

2. 未来十年最重要的事儿是休息

两者相辅相成，做不到2 大概率就做不到1

做到了1但做不到2，大输
做到了2但没有做到1，小赢
都做到了，大赢 @币安Binance华语 #美国非农数据超预期

I've been thinking about AI lately. Besides the well-known robots and the like, the implementation of AI, particularly AGENT, will also be a super huge industry. Robots, drones, computers, and smartphones will all have AGENT built in.

I can think of two advantages that have not yet been considered by the public:
First, Pinduoduo; the business model determines that AGENT will only choose it.
Second, Stable B; this is the only payment option for AGENT.

Including the current AI sector in B circle, the two attempts of AI from 23 to 24 were just basic trials. Note that at that time, it skyrocketed to hundreds or even thousands of times.

By 2026, there will definitely be a phenomenon-level AI product project emerging.

@币安Binance华语 #美国非农数据超预期

交易成长最快的方式就是硬着头皮上，人生所有的机遇都藏在你的恐惧里，

哪怕是手脚发抖也要上，你完全可以一边害怕一边出发，这一点都不丢人。

反倒是跨越一点点害怕之后，才能所向披靡，

因为真正的勇气不是无所畏惧，而是怀揣恐惧勇于前行。

世界就是一个草台班子，B圈更是，你想要在这里面赚到钱你就有机会赚到，

记住，不要让自己倒在黎明前，钱亏了可以重新在赚，但一个周期机会就那么一次，

一想到很多B跌了几十倍几百倍，上方的空间那么大，你现在所有的焦虑就不复存在了。#美国非农数据超预期 @币安Binance华语

Written in February, looking back at the end of the year. This year feels more like the first year of the BSC chain, witnessing BNB reaching third in market value, over 1000, the development and highlights of many BSC chain projects, as well as the profit-making effects, but there are also many failures, such as the BSC MEME, most of which have basically no opportunity in the second phase, they are all one-time, and for example, the BSC projects that have gone on ALPHA have very poor liquidity, retail investors go in and lose money before making any profit, like the insider of Huang Guo Zhi Nian from a few days ago. But the good thing is that BN has already transitioned from the early stage to a regular one, constantly reforming, and perhaps next year there will be different aspects, and the profit-making effects mentioned above are still worth looking forward to #区块链 #加密市场反弹 @币安Binance华语

You think you are worse off, don't worry, starting from the second half of 2025, only exchanges will make money, most investment institutions are losing money, and project parties are about the same, products can't even be sold, retail investors are worse off, many have already exited.

The current investment direction for institutions: either lightweight innovative products that can grow and monetize quickly, or Web2.5 products that can break the circle and attract traffic. Those heavy on product technology and teams, which require long cycles, are not favorable.

However, there is an interesting phenomenon, some KOLs have started to venture into entrepreneurship or work for project parties, while those who resigned from large firms are trying to become KOLs.

From a cyclical perspective, preparing projects now and choosing to finance or issue B during next year's bull market when the Federal Reserve's interest rates are relatively low is indeed in line with the cycle.

The above has become a common phenomenon recently @币安Binance华语 #加密市场反弹

For three consecutive weeks, there has been an increase in purchases! The E-Macro BMNR, led by Tom Lee, announced last week's ETH buying situation, compared to previous single-week purchases of 54,000, 69,000, and 96,000 ETH.

Last week, BMNR purchased 138,000 ETH, setting the highest single-week increase record since mid-October.

Currently, the company has accumulated 3.2% of the total ETH supply, getting closer to the 5% target. @币安Binance华语 #BNB

The most taboo thing in trading is the mindset of 'wanting this, wanting that, wanting more, wanting also, and preferably.'

I have previously talked about the most typical left-right brain struggle pattern of retail investors:

Wanting the price to immediately detach from the cost as soon as it is bought;

Also wanting the price to immediately retrace after taking profits;

Additionally wanting to wait for a retracement to add positions, and then the market immediately rebounds;

Also wanting to perfectly take profits at the top;

Preferably being able to short again and complete the whole process once more.

This kind of thinking sounds good, but it has no real basis in the market.

To put it more simply: the essence of trading is making decisions amidst noise; what you can do is manage the noise, but you cannot eliminate it.

If you insist on demanding a 'perfect path' from the market, you will always be countered by the noise. #加密市场反弹 @币安Binance华语

Trading should either treat money completely as money, without the fear of losses, and operate boldly, just like many people can profit from demo accounts.

Or it should treat money very seriously, as the fear of losses necessitates strict position control. Timely stop-losses can reduce the risk of significant capital drawdowns.

That said, whether trading spot or contracts, holding large positions while fearing losses and not cutting losses is a concern. Do you really take money seriously or not?

This question is worth contemplating. If you believe you cannot achieve the nonchalance and discipline of a demo account, then the path to profit lies solely in strict position management and using extreme fear to motivate yourself to survive in the market.

#ETH走势分析 @币安Binance华语 #BNB

To speak candidly, in this market and price, it doesn't really matter whether you talk about going long or short. Whether it's 92,000 or 80,000, 99% of retail investors can no longer afford it, and there's no way to get rich relying on the big players.

The only opportunity for retail investors in this bull market cycle lies in moments similar to the last explosive frenzy of imitation; other than that, I can't think of any opportunities for retail investors to make money in this market. #ETH走势分析 @币安Binance华语 #BNB

I have found that many people see others playing with meme coins and suddenly becoming wealthy, and they are particularly tempted to think they can also achieve such returns. This way of thinking is incorrect.

This notion is influenced by the survivor bias of the entire sector or by those who are overly optimistic and boastful.

Although meme coins are called memes or shitcoins, they are actually not easy to play with at all; they are, in fact, among the hardest to navigate in the crypto world. The investment risks are much higher than in secondary clones and other sectors.

Playing with meme coins = narrative skill + trending topics + information asymmetry + timing + market liquidity + capital games + emotional management + luck.

Although there are many meme coins and trading frequencies are fast, achieving a hundredfold or thousandfold return on a meme coin is not easy; it may be the result of accumulating dozens or hundreds of failures.

Even if you occasionally experience high returns from meme coins, that is merely luck; the real core is how to improve your pitiful win rate of around 20-30%.

The meme coin sector is not a short-term quick profit investment avenue, but rather a long-term process that requires intense speculation.

#Bitcoin btc##Cryptocurrency##Crypto circle##Altcoins##Blockchain##以太坊ETF #BNB @币安Binance华语

Some time ago, everyone was selling out due to panic, and major Wall Street analysts collectively turned bearish;

Then in less than 3 days, Charles Schwab, Vanguard, and Bank of America successively announced that they would open cryptocurrency investment products for clients.

The head of the SEC has had several interviews, stating that the big players in the B circle are coming, and Trump is holding a meeting and signing some orders for no reason.

Doesn't it feel like retail investors are being played by Wall Street institutions once again, with their little chips getting cut time and again,

So hold on tight, the people behind are still in the car, what are you afraid of...

#BitcoinBTC##DigitalCurrency##CryptoCircle##Altcoins##Blockchain##Ethereumeth#ETH走势分析 @币安Binance华语

Remember, making big money is not about buying and selling, but about waiting;

If you want to be rich, you need to place yourself in an environment where the "downside risk is very small, and the upside potential is very large."

What you need is not a lot of action, but a lot of patience.

You must stick to your principles, and when the opportunity arises, you seize it with all your strength.

#比特币btc #ETH走势分析 @币安Binance华语

Exclusive infiltration, December 2 analysis by the inspector, underestimated SOL, first rebound 140~160, 127 to 145, rebound quickly 15%[rose][rose][rose]

Although the big brother has returned to above 93,000 and has reached above 3,000, this time is completely different from before. The interest rate cuts in December are basically confirmed, and the policy indicates looseness. The government is opening the door, and one by one, tangible favorable policies are brewing.

Including the altcoins, which have also dropped quite a bit in the past few months, where can they drop further? From today's rebound, it's clear that pulling up by 30-50% in a day will be very common in the future. The project team's chips are too concentrated, and it's almost time for them to distribute quickly.

Today, BN replaced He Yi with a new CEO to do two things: 1. Solve the altcoin problem by cleaning up and delisting more garbage. We need to see which altcoins are still active during this drop and force them to rally. 2. Prepare for future momentum. Her strategy is to leverage small amounts for large gains, creating hotspots to bring liquidity back to altcoins.

Especially with MEME, we need to pay more attention; there will still be hundreds or thousands of times returns coming out.

Summary: I remain optimistic about the future market. My previous views remain unchanged; they will still have peaks, and there is another stage to go through. Be patient. #Bitcoin btc##Digital Currency##Crypto World##Altcoins##Ethereum eth##eth##bnb#币安区块链周 @币安Binance华语

Why is it that some people can't control their hands?

Whenever they have funds, they think about making a move, never considering the environment. These individuals have an overly strong competitive spirit, which stems from a high level of self-recognition.

They rarely work on self-improvement because they feel they are already quite capable. They only care about the outcome of events; if they succeed, it's due to their own abilities, which inflates their ego further. If they fail, it's just bad luck, and they continue to stubbornly pursue their path.

They seldom acknowledge that others are better than themselves and are unwilling to believe that others exceed them. In fact, many people are more competent than they are. When they encounter someone who excels, they may respond with sarcasm, a form of self-deception meant to mask their inner feelings of inferiority.

Controlling one's hands is, in fact, about managing one's heart. One must learn to acknowledge their shortcomings, observe others making money, and understand that there are very few things in this world they can truly control. Most importantly, one must realize that perfection is not a requirement; life can still be wonderful. #bitcoinbtc##digitalcurrency##cryptocurrency##altcoin##ethereumeth##eth##bnb#币安区块链周 @币安Binance华语