$ETH In the short term, influenced by dual core factors, the bearish pattern remains unchanged, with 2800 serving as the critical line for longs and shorts.
Liquidity: A suspected address associated with the Lido founder reduced its holdings by 14,585 ETH at an average price of $2928, cashing out $42.71 million, which increases short-term selling pressure. Macroeconomic: The U.S. November non-farm payroll data has been released, with expectations of adding 40,000 jobs, and the data has exceeded expectations.
Concentration of liquidation risk is high: Falling below 2800 will trigger $849 million in long liquidations, while breaking above 3000 will trigger $659 million in short liquidations. From a technical perspective, the 1-hour BOLL band has narrowed to 2900-2966, MACD shows a weak golden cross, and RSI is in the weak zone at 40, with resistance at 2970 and support between 2870-2800.
In terms of strategy, heavy investors can reduce positions in the range of 2940-2966; light positions / short positions need to wait for data to materialize + 4-hour stability signal. The risk of a single transaction should not exceed 2%.
Conclusion: Short-term high probability testing support at 2870-2800, but sustainability is limited; risk control is the primary principle.
