The market has a significant cognitive bias regarding Japan's interest rate hike, with most opinions categorizing it as negative news, believing that the negative impact will materialize immediately, while ignoring that its core is triggering a liquidity shock that causes substantial asset migration. From the perspective of funding behavior logic, before the interest rate hike takes effect, the funds borrowed in yen flowing into the cryptocurrency market have no incentive to return early—returning early would lead to a reduction in interest income, so funds tend to hold until just before the interest rate hike takes effect.
After the interest rate hike officially takes effect, the cost of financing in yen will rise, the arbitrage space will disappear, and the yen leverage funds in the cryptocurrency market will inevitably flow back to Japan, creating a significant liquidity withdrawal pressure. This determines that after the interest rate hike, ETH is likely to face a decline, but since the market has partially reacted in advance, the decline will be smaller than the volatility intensity before the rate hike.
In terms of trading strategy, you can anchor to $ETH 2820 points to execute profit-taking operations. After securing profits, observe the rhythm of capital inflow and price reactions, and then plan subsequent layouts to avoid being caught in volatility caused by liquidity contraction.
