As of December 17, 2025, the next round of a comprehensive altcoin season does not have an absolute fixed date. The core indicators to watch are the altcoin season index ≥ 75 and the BTC dominance rate continuing to decline below 58% and stabilizing. Combining market data and historical patterns, the conclusions for the time window are as follows:
1. Core Time Window
- Short-term (1–4 weeks, before the end of December): Structural rotation is the main focus, making a comprehensive altcoin season difficult to achieve; the current index is about 30–40, BTC dominance is 58%–60%, and funds are cautious, with only localized hotspots.
- Mid-term (1–3 months, January–March 2026): Most likely activation window. If BTC consolidates at a high level, dominance breaks below 58%, liquidity is loose, and mainstream narratives resonate, the index is expected to quickly surge to 75+, fully activating.
- Long-term (3–6 months, April–June 2026): If the mid-term does not activate, it is highly likely that funds will rotate during this period after the halving. Historically, 1–2 years after the halving is a peak period for altcoin seasons. $BTC
