The altcoin season has no fixed date, primarily looking at two signals: the altcoin season index ≥ 75 (over 75% of the top 50/100 large-cap altcoins outperform Bitcoin over the past 90 days) and a decline in Bitcoin's dominance. Combining history with the 2025 market:
1. Historical patterns: It often starts 1-2 years after Bitcoin's halving, in the midst of a bull market; in 2017, it exploded about a year after BTC's halving, and in 2021, it started within six months after the halving. 2. Current situation in 2025 (as of December 17): The altcoin season index has risen to 71, approaching the 75 threshold; BTC's dominance has dropped below 57%, funds are beginning to rotate, and analysts generally believe that December is a critical window period, making a full altcoin season likely to officially start this month until early 2026.
As of December 18, 2025, BTC.D is approximately 56.8%, in a downward channel, favorable for altcoin season.
Overview of the trend curve (time-value)
- Early January: approximately 55.7% (annual low), funds testing altcoins - April: rises to 60.5%, first break of 60%, BTC strongly attracts capital - June 22: 65.0% (annual high), institutional ETF continues to inflow - July-September: fluctuates downwards, September drops to 57.9%, funds begin to rotate - Early November: 61%+, after a brief rebound accelerates downward - End of November: 58.8%, breaks below the key level of 60% - Mid-December: approximately 56.8%, breaks 57%, clear signal for altcoin season
Silver continues to reach new highs. Since the beginning of this year, I have been bullish on A-shares, gold, and silver at the square. After A-shares rose to 4000 points, I stopped being bullish because I felt that short-term risks might outweigh the rewards, but A-shares are experiencing a slow bull market in the index. Gold reached 4370, which is my first target, and I haven't looked at it for now. Currently, silver continues to reach new highs, with the first target looking at 70. I still hold the same view that investments should not be limited to the cryptocurrency market. Be brave and step out of your comfort zone; you may have unexpected gains.
As of December 17, 2025, 18:00 (BTC approximately $86,900), the core judgment for January 2026: first consolidation, then attempt to break through, with a baseline range of $85,000–$95,000, key factors depending on Federal Reserve policy, ETF funding, and technical breakthroughs. The probability distribution and scenarios are as follows.
1. Core Scenario and Probability
- Baseline (Probability 50%): Fluctuation between $85,000–$95,000. The Federal Reserve's stance is neutral, ETF funding is moderately flowing in, with strong resistance at $94,000–$95,000 above and strong support at $85,000 below, a directional choice may occur around mid-month. - Optimistic (Probability 30%): A breakout above $95,000, testing $98,000–$100,000. Requires the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates + dovish stance, ETF inflow exceeding $100 million weekly, and major coins like ETH leading in resonance, forming a trend upward. - Pessimistic (Probability 20%): Falling below $85,000, testing $80,000–$84,000. Due to a hawkish Federal Reserve, whale sell-offs, or increased regulation, capital flows back to safe havens, leading to weaker fluctuations.
2. Monthly Rhythm and Key Levels
- Early Month: Continuing the end-of-year fluctuations, testing resistance at $88,000 and support at $85,500, with converging volatility. - Mid Month: The Federal Reserve's January meeting outcome is a directional watershed; if it stabilizes above $90,000, it leans bullish; if it falls below $85,000, it leans bearish. - Late Month: Capital allocation for the first quarter, if it breaks above $95,000, it is expected to challenge the $100,000 mark; otherwise, it will maintain low-level fluctuations.
3. Core Driving Factors
1. Federal Reserve's January meeting: A 25 basis point rate cut and dovish stance would be favorable; maintaining interest rates or a hawkish stance would be under pressure. 2. ETF capital flow: Weekly net inflow stabilizing above $100 million is key driving force for upward movement. 3. Technical Aspect: Daily MACD red bars narrowing, RSI neutral, 4-hour Bollinger Bands narrowing, need a volume breakout to confirm direction. 4. Bank of Japan Policy: Rate hikes exceeding expectations may trigger liquidity tightening, indirectly pressuring BTC.
As of December 17, 2025, the next round of a comprehensive altcoin season does not have an absolute fixed date. The core indicators to watch are the altcoin season index ≥ 75 and the BTC dominance rate continuing to decline below 58% and stabilizing. Combining market data and historical patterns, the conclusions for the time window are as follows:
1. Core Time Window
- Short-term (1–4 weeks, before the end of December): Structural rotation is the main focus, making a comprehensive altcoin season difficult to achieve; the current index is about 30–40, BTC dominance is 58%–60%, and funds are cautious, with only localized hotspots. - Mid-term (1–3 months, January–March 2026): Most likely activation window. If BTC consolidates at a high level, dominance breaks below 58%, liquidity is loose, and mainstream narratives resonate, the index is expected to quickly surge to 75+, fully activating. - Long-term (3–6 months, April–June 2026): If the mid-term does not activate, it is highly likely that funds will rotate during this period after the halving. Historically, 1–2 years after the halving is a peak period for altcoin seasons. $BTC
Is the counterfeit season starting? Not yet? The last round.
魔怔姐
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Once the right bottom is confirmed, a new wave of market can start at any time!\nThe view remains unchanged; today may be the starting point for a new wave of market!\nThere are two reasons: first, during the last two Fed rate cuts, the A-shares dropped sharply on the same day, and after four days of consolidation, a new wave of market began. From December 11th to today, it is the fifth trading day.\nSecond, from a technical perspective, this is very likely the right bottom, and there isn't much space to go down; the support is at the half-year line, which may not even be reached.\nTherefore, we must be cautious as this can start at any time.
This round of the bull market has no new coins exceeding 10 billion
K 神
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It's been a long time since I've heard people shout about hundredfold coins and thousandfold coins; now threefold and fivefold are considered extravagant. The cryptocurrency world has really changed.
The bottom is rising higher, such an obvious signal📶 Still not going up If you miss this crazy bull market You shouldn't trade anymore Whether in the crypto world or traditional finance, it's not suitable for you You are only fit for delivering food, express delivery, or driving Didi The biggest wave of bull market in the next ten years Regret missing it for a lifetime $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT) $ETH {spot}(ETHUSDT) $BNB
The bottom is rising higher, such an obvious signal📶 Still not going up If you miss this crazy bull market You shouldn't trade anymore Whether in the crypto world or traditional finance, it's not suitable for you You are only fit for delivering food, express delivery, or driving Didi The biggest wave of bull market in the next ten years Regret missing it for a lifetime $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT) $ETH {spot}(ETHUSDT) $BNB
Wow, it's blown up! The latest unemployment rate and employment data from the United States have arrived. Could this be good news? Let's take a look quickly. This time, the unemployment rate is 4.6%, significantly higher than expected! The employment data is slightly below expectations! This unemployment rate of 4.6% is quite surprising, which is definitely bad news. However, it also increases the probability of interest rate cuts in January, so it's a mixed bag. But the trend of continuously increasing unemployment is still concerning; it's really quite unexpected.
This round is just the exchanges and institutions working together to cut leeks. In the past, listing coins was worth tens of millions, sideways, and then a pump. Either small exchanges come up one by one, This round is either VC, or all listed on exchanges in a few days, raising it to tens of billions,
Insight财经
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Altcoins have reached zero.
Apart from the top 20 cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, the total market value of all other altcoins has only dropped to 100 billion USD.
Many projects have not been diluted yet, such as $IP , $M , CC, $NIGHT , and other new coins, with almost all chips in the hands of the project parties. Looking at it this way, the industry really feels empty now.
During such a cold time, the last time it felt this way was definitely during the period of 2019 and 2020. If it continues to deteriorate, it will be impossible to find a similar garbage time over the past 8 years, returning to the early stages of this industry.
The algorithm is as follows:
Remove 300 billion USD in stablecoins, then remove the market value of the top 20 coins, leaving the total market value of all cryptocurrencies at about 100 billion USD, which is less than the market value of BNB.
The current total market value is 284 billion USD, stablecoins are 300 billion USD, then subtract the market values of the top 20 coins (excluding stablecoins) to see if it is around 100 billion USD.
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been very calm, with altcoins showing almost no fluctuation.
币圈大太子
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Currently devouring the world of cryptocurrency (with only a pitiful market value of 30 trillion 😂)
Once tightly pursuing the cryptocurrency sector, the SEC while penalizing people, was also copying homework
Now they simply stop pretending and personally come to educate you about what a cryptocurrency wallet is how to store cryptocurrency assets what custody means what self-custody means
Previously it was "This is illegal" now it is "Come, let me teach you how to use it"
The reason Bitcoin exhibits a 4-year cyclical pattern is actually due to the halving mechanism, which leads to a continuous process of disruption and reconstruction of price balance. This mechanism will remain effective until the block rewards exceed the transaction fees.
okb is not working, it was forcibly pulled up in a few days, too garbage
玲峰资本
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It is unimaginable for the bear to think that the Bitcoin crash is about to come. The lowest point of Bitcoin is definitely not 80,000. In this big cycle, Bitcoin ranges from 15,500 to 126,200. An 8x return. In this big cycle, nothing has outperformed Bitcoin's eightfold increase. This indicates that this coin is not suitable for allocation. However, there is one coin that has performed exceptionally well. That is sol. Including platform coins, most have also outperformed Bitcoin. BNB and OKB have outperformed Bitcoin. In the next bull market, which cryptocurrencies should be allocated?
After talking for a long time, have you considered one? Let it go? It's not just the leeks that are being let go; the leeks have no money left. In a complete cycle, the leeks have very few opportunities to make money. Who still plays?
Crypto麻子新
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The altcoin season index continues to hit new lows, yet the pace of new releases has not stopped. When will there be a comprehensive surge in the altcoin season? Only a significant influx of money could make it possible; the risk market is saturated before spilling over into higher-risk markets.
When the growth rate of the risk market cannot keep up with the increase in money, it will naturally flow into more volatile markets. So, is the altcoin really a scam?
I don't think so. If it were you, with a large asset volume and no high returns, you would also choose the top performers, because no one wants to take on greater and uncertain risks. [And the current market distribution is: traditional finance (low-interest principal protection), risk finance (gold, platinum, leading stocks, or including BTC), speculative markets (various small stocks, small coins)]
The current market is in this state, and the economic environment is similar. When making money becomes difficult, what everyone fears most is losing money.
Perhaps at some stage in the future, when there is a significant influx of money, you will see that making money becomes very easy, with water overflowing and celebrations everywhere, and the altcoin market thriving. So, the blame should not be on the market, but on the different environment we are in.
The stage that best reflects "having liquidity" was the NFT boom of that year. Back then, even a junk image could be traded for tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands of dollars. Why did some people dare to play with worthless images? Simply put, there was too much money with nowhere to spend, and the altcoins that multiplied several times a day could no longer satisfy them, so they pursued NFTs that multiplied by hundreds or thousands a day.
The logic is the same: when liquidity is abundant, everyone seeks higher returns; when liquidity is tight, the goal shifts to earning less but not losing.
I have previously written that I turned my fortunes around through the altcoin market. Many people's opportunities may have to wait many years, and before they arrive, all one can do is lie low, survive, and wait.
When new things appear, trying and making mistakes within one's capability is an effective way to offset costs. No one knows what the future holds, whether it's US stocks on-chain, RWA, or public chains, L2.
Please refrain from comments like "Brother Gangzi is not talking about the present," "the fate of altcoins is to go to zero," or "why don't you go all in and buy". The current situation may not be friendly, but it doesn't mean there won't be opportunities in the future. When the day of opportunity comes, I will naturally act.
The big pancake is about to change, the strategy of loosening has reached its end, and May next year is basically the final shot. The market is always speculating on expectations; looking at history, when expectations materialize, it's always a stagnant situation. The market always rises in hesitation, to put it bluntly, it's a sneak attack.