As of December 17, 2025, 18:00 (BTC approximately $86,900), the core judgment for January 2026: first consolidation, then attempt to break through, with a baseline range of $85,000–$95,000, key factors depending on Federal Reserve policy, ETF funding, and technical breakthroughs. The probability distribution and scenarios are as follows.
1. Core Scenario and Probability
- Baseline (Probability 50%): Fluctuation between $85,000–$95,000. The Federal Reserve's stance is neutral, ETF funding is moderately flowing in, with strong resistance at $94,000–$95,000 above and strong support at $85,000 below, a directional choice may occur around mid-month.
- Optimistic (Probability 30%): A breakout above $95,000, testing $98,000–$100,000. Requires the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates + dovish stance, ETF inflow exceeding $100 million weekly, and major coins like ETH leading in resonance, forming a trend upward.
- Pessimistic (Probability 20%): Falling below $85,000, testing $80,000–$84,000. Due to a hawkish Federal Reserve, whale sell-offs, or increased regulation, capital flows back to safe havens, leading to weaker fluctuations.
2. Monthly Rhythm and Key Levels
- Early Month: Continuing the end-of-year fluctuations, testing resistance at $88,000 and support at $85,500, with converging volatility.
- Mid Month: The Federal Reserve's January meeting outcome is a directional watershed; if it stabilizes above $90,000, it leans bullish; if it falls below $85,000, it leans bearish.
- Late Month: Capital allocation for the first quarter, if it breaks above $95,000, it is expected to challenge the $100,000 mark; otherwise, it will maintain low-level fluctuations.
3. Core Driving Factors
1. Federal Reserve's January meeting: A 25 basis point rate cut and dovish stance would be favorable; maintaining interest rates or a hawkish stance would be under pressure.
2. ETF capital flow: Weekly net inflow stabilizing above $100 million is key driving force for upward movement.
3. Technical Aspect: Daily MACD red bars narrowing, RSI neutral, 4-hour Bollinger Bands narrowing, need a volume breakout to confirm direction.
4. Bank of Japan Policy: Rate hikes exceeding expectations may trigger liquidity tightening, indirectly pressuring BTC.
