Bitcoin showed a wide range of fluctuations on Wednesday, with the price stabilizing slightly around 87500 in the morning. In the evening, influenced by long and short positions, it strongly rebounded to a temporary high of 90360 but then faced a bearish attack, with the price dropping deeply to around 86128, forming the day's low. Ethereum's movements were highly correlated with Bitcoin, stabilizing from a low of 2942 in the morning and reaching a maximum resistance level of 3030, before being pressured back down to around 2832. In terms of overall trading strategy, Lao Wang accurately grasped the bearish trend in the morning, continuously profiting from real operations. In the evening, due to sudden news impact, there was a rapid surge before a reversal. Unfortunately, only a small portion of the gains was shared with the students, and not everything was captured.
The core driving factor of the market's abnormal movements stems from key signals released by Federal Reserve officials. The popular candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, current governor Waller, stated on Wednesday evening, emphasizing that the current labor market recovery is weak, and the momentum for labor force growth is insufficient, suggesting that the Federal Reserve still has room for interest rate cuts. He clearly supports further rate cuts to push interest rates back to neutral levels but also pointed out that policy adjustments do not need to be rushed. Waller is confident about inflation stabilizing, openly refuting market concerns about a rebound in prices, and promised to reaffirm the Federal Reserve's decision-making independence during a meeting with President Trump. These comments directly stimulated a risk appetite increase in the cryptocurrency market, triggering short-term capital grabbing behavior.
Considering the current dynamics of the global financial market, the future of crypto assets needs to focus on multiple risk factors:
The Bank of Japan unexpectedly released hawkish signals, with the market betting on an increased expectation of interest rate hikes next year, which may lead to changes in global liquidity expectations;
U.S. November PPI data exceeded expectations and cooled down, reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, but caution is needed regarding the fluctuations in economic data that may lead to repeated policy expectations;
The flow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has shown divergence, with intensified games of increase and decrease in institutional holdings;
Geopolitical uncertainties continue, and the escalation of the situation in the Middle East may stimulate the flow of risk-averse funds.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's 4-hour line has formed a top divergence structure, and the short-term moving average system shows signs of a death cross, so caution is needed to prevent the risk of a second bottom test. The operational strategy recommends maintaining caution, paying attention to the breakout direction in the 86000-90000 range, strictly setting take-profit and stop-loss orders, conducting wave operations in line with market trends, and avoiding excessive chasing of rises and falls.
In the following Thursday morning thoughts, everyone can still safely go for low long positions. I won't analyze the technical aspects too much here; everyone has their own judgments, and I will just share a bit.
Operational recommendations:
Bitcoin 85800-86300 long, looking for 88000
Ethereum 2800-2830 long, looking for 2930
