#巨鲸动向 Core conclusion: The current weakness of Bitcoin is not because it can't perform, but because global liquidity is being 'sucked out' by the Bank of Japan.
1. Recently, do you feel this way?
Watching the market is like watching a movie without a climax:
• It neither rises nor falls, just stays horizontal
• When good news comes, it shakes, when bad news comes, it really goes down
• Contract players are repeatedly slapped in the face, spot players are starting to doubt life
Many people are wondering: 'Is the bull market over?','Is Bitcoin no longer attractive?'
Don't rush to criticize BTC; the true director of this market is not on-chain, not the big players, but in Tokyo.
Two, first understand: Japan was once the world's "free ATM."
Simple popular science background:
• United States, Europe: Hiked interest rates sharply over the past two years.
• Japan: Long-term maintaining interest rates ≈ 0%.
What does this mean? The world's cheapest money is the yen.
What will capital do? Of course:
Borrow yen → Buy US stocks → Buy global assets → Buy Bitcoin
So in the past, you could simply and brutally understand: The Bank of Japan = the invisible financier of global risk assets.
Three, a change has come: Japan has started to raise interest rates, and it may continue to do so.
The Bank of Japan recently revealed: Inflation cannot be suppressed, interest rates need to go up, and it's not a one-time thing, but a continuous rise.
This step has an impact on the entire global capital market, comparable to every interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve.
Four, how does the yen interest rate hike "suck dry" Bitcoin?
I will clarify with three chains:
Chain one: Money has interest now, who still takes risks?
In the past: Borrow yen ≈ Free, go speculate!
Now it is: Yen deposits/bonds have stable returns, lying flat can make money, why bother with the high volatility of Bitcoin?
Result: The willingness of funds to flow into risk assets has sharply declined.
Chain two: Yen becomes more expensive, global pump starts.
Interest rate hike = Yen appreciation.
Funds that previously borrowed yen to speculate on global assets must now: repay debts, close positions, and return to Japan.
What is this called? A global liquidity retreat.
Bitcoin, as one of the most liquidity-sensitive assets, when water decreases, fish naturally can't swim.
Chain three: Japanese local players have also "stopped".
Japan is a major cryptocurrency country, with compliant exchanges, active retail investors, and deep institutional participation.
But when domestically there are: Deposits with interest + rising bond yields + stable appreciation of the exchange rate, many local funds will choose: "First stabilize and earn, no more speculation."
As a result, new buying pressure for Bitcoin has directly shut off.
Five, here's the key: Different intensities of interest rate hikes lead to completely different fates for BTC.
This is the underlying logic you must understand:
🟢 Scenario one: Slight interest rate hike (within market expectations).
• BTC short-term pullback, but quickly digested.
• Characteristics: A drop is an opportunity, rebound is quick.
🟡 Scenario two: Continuous interest rate hikes (currently the most similar).
• The yen continues to strengthen, funds slowly flow back.
• Characteristics: No sharp decline, but unable to rise, continuing to oscillate and torment people.
• This is exactly the stage where beginners are most easily washed out.
🔴 Scenario three: Added to a high position (risk alert).
• The yen has become an asset that is "both safe and profitable."
• Characteristics: BTC may enter months or even longer of oscillating downward period.
• This is not a problem with Bitcoin itself, but rather the macro environment does not support a charge.
Six, what should ordinary investors do?
Three iron laws, recommended to memorize:
1. Don't touch leverage, especially high leverage.
Volatile market + macro uncertainty = graveyard for leveragers.
2. Treat the "Japan interest rate hike rhythm" as your market switch.
• US and Japan halt interest rate hikes / expect rate cuts → Risk assets are comfortable, BTC is likely to take off.
• Japan continues to raise interest rates → Don't expect daily pump, accept volatility.
3. Long-term players: The less people discuss, the safer it is.
If you plan to hold for more than a year, the current state is: no heat, no FOMO, quiet community, precisely safer than when the whole society is in a frenzy.
Seven, a summary in one sentence.
Bitcoin is not lacking in technology now, nor is the narrative bankrupt, but globally, money temporarily prefers to "lie down and earn risk-free returns."
Wait for the day when the Bank of Japan releases the brakes on interest rate hikes, global liquidity will flood back, and you will find: BTC is still that BTC, and it will rise as fast as lightning.
💡 Finally, if you feel this article really helped you understand the market, welcome:
• Follow us, no longer be trapped by macro fog.
• Like and support, let more investors see the truth.
• Comment and discuss, share your positions and views.
• Forward to group friends, next time someone asks "Why isn't Bitcoin rising?", just throw him this article.
• Leave your questions in the comments, we will analyze the link between macroeconomics and the crypto market in depth later.
Understanding macro is the key to navigating bull and bear markets. See you next time. #美国非农数据超预期 #美国讨论BTC战略储备 $BTC
