🚀 Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting: Thoughts on Short-term Volatility and Mid to Long-term Opportunities
From a chip structure perspective, the current market situation is not ideal, and the trend appears slightly awkward, which is an objective problem. However, it is precisely because of this that important events often become more likely to be observed during this phase. What is worth paying attention to in Japan's monetary policy meeting is not the interest rate level itself, which has been fully discussed in the market, but whether there will be unexpected changes. If such changes occur, short-term volatility may be magnified.
Viewed in the context of Japan-U.S. relations, in the backdrop of a global gradual shift into a rate-cutting cycle, the weakening of the dollar and the easing of pressure on the yen exchange rate are not necessarily bad for risk assets from a mid to long-term perspective. In terms of liquidity, the market has not yet shown significant anomalies; overall, it remains in a relatively loose trend, and the logic of funds overflowing still holds.
It is important to pay attention to the pace of deleveraging, especially near critical time windows, where changes in sentiment and chip structures often manifest in advance. Overall, risks and opportunities coexist, but under the premise that the direction of easing has not changed, the weight of opportunities remains higher than that of risks. For participants leaning towards the left side, the current phase feels more like a gradual assessment and patiently searching for certainties within three months. The above is merely personal observation, and rational communication is welcome.
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