Comrades, waking up today and seeing Ethereum's price chart, I guess many people's hearts have dropped. This market is indeed frustrating, but I want to remind everyone: the more difficult the time, the more calm we must remain. As an old hand who has been in the circle for many years, I want to share my views with you.
Current battlefield: Bulls defend the $2900 line
This drop early this morning caused Ethereum to completely lose the psychological barrier of $3000, with a low even touching around $2900. Now the price is struggling around $2950, like a weak patient.
What's even scarier is that this crash has triggered a chain reaction. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $468 million, with over 147,000 comrades being forcibly liquidated. Market sentiment has dropped to a freezing point, with the fear and greed index at only 16, entering the 'extreme fear' zone. Many of my friends who previously shouted 'the bull is back' are now silent.
From a technical perspective, the situation is indeed not optimistic:
Short-term resistance: $3000 has already transformed from a previous support level into a strong resistance level. Heavier pressure above lies in the $3150-3200 area, where resistance from previous lows and moving averages converges.
Key support: Right now, $2900 is the last hiding place for the bulls. If this level cannot be held, the next support level to watch is around $2749. Further down, it may even retest the $2800 area or lower.
Behind the decline: It's not just a technical issue
This decline cannot be viewed solely through charts. Behind the scenes, there are several 'monsters' at work:
Expectation of global liquidity tightening: The most direct trigger is the market's concern about a possible interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. If this 'tap' is tightened, all global risk assets may be affected, and high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies will certainly be among the first to suffer.
Institutional funds fleeing in the short term: Recently, institutions like BlackRock have transferred a large amount of Ethereum to exchanges, and there has been significant capital outflow from Ethereum ETFs. This clearly indicates that institutions are avoiding risks brought by short-term uncertainties, putting considerable selling pressure on the market.
The market's own high leverage: The market previously accumulated too many high-leverage long positions, and when the price fell, it easily triggered a chain liquidation, causing itself to crash. Today's liquidation volume is a testament to that.
My personal judgment and operational thinking
To be honest, the current situation has already shifted to a bearish trend in the short term. In this environment, preserving capital is more important than making money. Below is my personal strategy, not investment advice, for your reference:
For comrades with heavy positions: If there is significant resistance around $3000-3050 during a rebound, I will consider cutting some positions to ensure survival first. Don't blindly add to positions at this time; catching falling knives in a downtrend is dangerous.
For friends looking to bottom fish: Patience is more precious than gold. My personal plan is that if the price reaches the $2750-2800 area and shows obvious signs of shrinking volume and consolidation, I might tentatively try a small position for a rebound, targeting only the $3000 mark. Remember, absolutely do not fire all bullets at once.
For comrades who are watching with no positions: You are the happiest right now. My advice is to continue watching the show. The real bottom is not formed by a V-shaped reversal, but is ground out over time. Wait until there are obvious signs of shrinking volume, consolidation, and indicator divergence at the daily level before considering entering the market in batches.
A glimmer of hope: Light seen in the darkness
Although the short-term trend looks bad, we shouldn't dismiss it entirely. Some on-chain data has begun to send conflicting signals: on one hand, the inflow to exchanges has increased, indicating selling pressure; on the other hand, some whale addresses are increasing their holdings against the trend. This shows that large funds have differing opinions at this position.
Additionally, Ethereum's MVRV Z-Score indicator is approaching the historical accumulation zone, which usually indicates that a local bottom may be forming. In the long term, Ethereum's fundamentals (such as Layer 2 development, staking economy, etc.) have not disappeared; it remains an indispensable infrastructure in the crypto ecosystem.
A few last words from the heart
Brothers, the market is like this, rising and falling. In the giant wave of liquidity retreating, all assets will reveal their true weight. The current decline is helping us squeeze out the bubbles and leverage.
In the midst of the storm, only those who survive are qualified to talk about the future. What we need to do now is to acknowledge the trend, maintain awe, control our hands, and wait for the market to give us the next clear signal.
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