Recently, a key signal is worth paying attention to: the newly appointed chair of the Federal Reserve has clearly stated the need for "low interest rates". The underlying logic is straightforward; the $9 trillion in maturing government bonds needs to be sustained, and printing money is imperative.
But there is a contradiction right in front of us. U.S. inflation remains stuck at a high level of 3%, while Japan is quietly raising interest rates in the opposite direction. The monetary policies of the two major central banks are completely reversed, which is rare in history. The last time such a policy divergence occurred was during World War II, when inflation ultimately soared to 20%.
What does this mean for investors? Let's take a look one by one:
First, the hedging property of Bitcoin may be activated again. The expectation of excessive issuance of the dollar + global demand for asset hedging makes this narrative logic indeed valid. Historically, whenever the pressure of dollar devaluation increases, mainstream asset allocation often reconsiders the role of BTC.
Second, market volatility may be quite severe. The Federal Reserve is easing while maintaining hawkish rhetoric, while Japan is tightening; this contradiction will cause a rift in market pricing. Both bulls and bears can find their own reasons, and a double kill may play out in the short term.
Third, two data points need to be closely monitored: the monthly release of the US CPI and the minutes of the Bank of Japan. Any signals that exceed expectations could become the ignition point for market movements.
To be honest, what is most unpleasant now is not whether it goes up or down, but that everyone in the market is guessing the next move of the central bank. Is it really going to ease and stimulate, or is it just another "wolf is coming" trick? This suspense itself is pricing volatility.
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