Dedicated to all ordinary people who are tired of extreme losses and gains, and want stable profits
1. Choose coins: it’s better to focus on three than to mess around with thirty
I have seen too many people hoard coins like stamps, and when the market comes, they become flustered. My principle is: never hold more than 3 coins at the same time, and they must belong to different tracks (for example, public chain + DeFi + AI sector). Why?
Focus on energy: human cognition is limited, and tracking multiple cryptocurrencies can easily lead to missing key signals. For example, when the SOL ecosystem explodes, you need to be aware of its gas fee changes and on-chain activity, rather than just looking at the price;
Risk hedging: Different sectors have different rotation cycles. By 2025, market hotspots have rotated from MEME to RWA, and then to the AI sector; diversifying paths can avoid 'one loss for all'.
My own observation list usually only has 5 coins, but I never hold more than 3 heavily. Less is more, and slow is fast.
2. Emotional management: Don't go crazy when the market goes crazy
Retail investors die from chasing highs and cutting losses, while veterans die from excessive confidence; this is a weakness of human nature. My coping strategy:
When prices rise, ask yourself: 'Am I willing to add positions at this price?' If not, it indicates that a bubble has formed, and taking profits in batches is the best strategy;
When prices drop, ask yourself: 'Has the fundamental changed?' If not, add positions; if it has, cut losses. For example, when ETH drops from $5000 to $4200, if on-chain data does not show large whales unloading, then it's a buying opportunity.
The market is never short of opportunities; what is lacking is money. Retaining strength is more important than making a quick fortune once.
3. Positioning: Never let your account 'run naked'
Going all-in is gambling, not trading. My position logic is in two layers:
Capital allocation: Use a 'pyramid adding' strategy. The first position only invests 20%, add 30% for every 10% drop, buy more as it drops (provided the fundamentals remain intact). This way, after cost averaging, a 5% rebound can break even;
Sector allocation: BTC/ETH accounts for 50% (the ballast), hot altcoins 30% (to seek profit), leaving 20% cash to seize sudden opportunities.
Position determines mindset, mindset determines operation. When you have grain in hand, you can smile during a crash.
4. Discipline: Lock the impulse
Why do most people’s profit-taking and stop-loss strategies amount to nothing? Because they 'feel it can still rise/fall'. My solution:
Strict rules: Sell 1/3 when profits reach 30%, let profits run after recovering costs; unconditionally cut losses at 15%;
Regular reviews: Draw a capital curve once a week; if you continuously underperform the market, stop operations immediately and reflect on your strategy.
Discipline goes against human nature, but long-term profitability is the result of going against human nature.
5. Technical analysis: Candlestick patterns are basic skills, not metaphysics
I don't blindly trust indicators, but there are three tools I must check:
EMA moving average: The daily EMA20 crossing above EMA200 can be seen as a mid-term buy signal, crossing below means reducing positions;
Trading volume: A breakout above previous highs can be chased, while a rebound on low volume should be approached with caution;
Support/Resistance levels: Draw horizontal lines at previous highs and lows, and make decisions based on market sentiment when approaching them.
The essence of technical analysis is to understand market sentiment, not to predict the future.
6. Build positions in batches: Refuse the temptation of 'one-shot gambling'
Buy the coins you are optimistic about all at once! I prefer to enter in three batches:
First batch (30%): Test with small positions when breaking key levels;
Second batch (40%): Add positions after confirming support level;
Third batch (30%): Chase the trend when there is a surge in volume.
Even if you buy halfway up the mountain, building positions in batches can pull the cost back to the foot of the mountain.
Lastly, let me say a couple of words
This method sounds like it has no technical content, but the difficulty lies in persistence. The market is in a waste of time 90% of the time; there are only two or three real opportunities worth heavy investment in a year. The core of stable profitability is to use a system to restrain randomness.
Remember: You don't need to catch every fluctuation; you just need to earn the money that belongs to you in the market.
Follow me@币圈罗盘 to learn the underlying logic of contract strategy next time, helping you avoid detours and earn real money!#美国非农数据超预期 $BTC $ETH
