The US CPI will be announced tonight, and Japan is likely to raise interest rates tomorrow! Has the market already prepared its calculations?
Brothers, tonight and tomorrow morning will see two major events: the US CPI data will be released tonight, and the Bank of Japan is very likely to raise interest rates to a 30-year high tomorrow. From the news perspective, it looks like a fierce battle, but in reality, the market may have already laid flat.
The interest rate hike in Japan has been "previewed" by the market for half a year. From the beginning of the year until now, the exchange rate has responded early, and even media surveys have all predicted an interest rate hike for the first time. To put it simply, a 0.25% increase, as long as there's no surprise, is considered a "shoe dropping," with limited actual impact.
The real variable, however, lies with the US. Tonight's CPI data is the "blind box". But the core logic hasn’t changed: as long as the data doesn’t explode, the market will continue to speculate on the expectation that the Federal Reserve will eventually cut interest rates. Currently, oil prices and the job market are stable, and inflation is likely to remain the same as before.
Therefore, the real play for the market may be: to wash the disk with news and complete the long-short exchange at key positions. Don’t be scared by the news. The interest rate hike in Japan is a clear sign, while the US CPI is an old topic. The market is likely to use this kind of "known fear" to make moves.
Do you think this time it will be a "negative news fully priced in directly pulling up", or "two heavy blows creating a deep pit"? $BTC
