Tonight at 21:30, the US November CPI data will be released! It was originally scheduled for December 10, but was postponed due to the government shutdown, making the change feel quite nerve-wracking.

Data forecast situation

Release time and market expectations

The market generally predicts that the overall CPI will be about 3.1%, slightly higher than 3.0% in September, compared to the same period last year; the core CPI is expected to remain at 3.0%, the same as in September. Compared to last month, the overall CPI may still be 0.3%, the same as in September; the core CPI is expected to be 0.3%, slightly higher than 0.2% in September.

Different institutions have different views

The market consensus is that the overall CPI is year-on-year 3.1%, core CPI is year-on-year 3.0%, and core CPI month-on-month is 0.3%. Goldman Sachs predicts the overall CPI to be year-on-year 2.88%, core CPI month-on-month 0.16%; Torres from Interactive Brokers thinks the overall CPI is year-on-year 2.9%, core CPI is year-on-year 2.9%, core CPI month-on-month 0.2%; some economists also predict the overall CPI to be between 2.9% - 3.1% year-on-year. These data are summarized from institutions like Yicai, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs, and Interactive Brokers.

Basis of prediction revealed

Why are there these predictions? There are several main reasons.
First is the tariff policy. Recently, tariffs have been adjusted, which may cause the prices of imported goods to rise, and November is likely to be the peak point of inflation caused by tariffs.
Secondly, there is housing cost. Zillow predicts that rental growth will slow down year-on-year, reaching 3.6% by the end of this year, and will drop to 2.6% in 2026, which may cool down core inflation.
Finally, there are energy prices. Gasoline prices have dropped, which may offset some of the price increases of other goods, leading to inflation being lower than expected.

Analysis of data impact
If the year-on-year CPI is greater than or equal to 3.3%, the market may think the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts, the dollar will strengthen, and the stock and bond markets will face greater pressure.
If the year-on-year CPI is between 3.0% - 3.2%, it basically meets expectations, has little impact on the market, and the Federal Reserve will likely continue on the current policy path.
If the year-on-year CPI is less than or equal to 2.8%, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates may become stronger, the dollar will weaken, and risk assets may rise.

Personal views and conclusions

The market generally believes that the November CPI will slightly rise to 3.1% year-on-year, with core CPI stable at 3.0%, and month-on-month increases of 0.3%. Tonight's data serves as a signal, allowing us to see if inflation has stabilized around 3%, which is particularly crucial for predicting the Federal Reserve's policy path in 2026.

However, everyone should also note that these predictions are based on market information and institutional analysis available as of this afternoon. We will have to wait for the actual data to be released tonight at 21:30 to see how it really is. Ah Bei plans to position for a potentially explosive coin in this market; brothers who want to join can gather in the chat room.

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