Beijing time today (December 18) at 21:30, the US will release key November CPI (Consumer Price Index) and last week's initial jobless claims data.
📊 Key data release time and expectations
· US November unadjusted CPI year-on-year: market expectation is 3.1%
· US November unadjusted core CPI year-on-year: market expectation is 3.0%
· US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13: previous value was 236,000
📈 Potential impact logic on the cryptocurrency market
The market usually views inflation and employment data as a barometer for judging the Federal Reserve's monetary policy (interest rate hikes or cuts), which in turn affects market liquidity and risk appetite.
To help you quickly understand, here are the different market logics that the data results may trigger:
If inflation (CPI) data is below expectations
· Market Interpretation: Easing inflation pressures, the Federal Reserve may be inclined to relax monetary policy (cut interest rates) earlier or more significantly.
· Potential Impact: A loose monetary environment is usually interpreted as favorable for cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. Historical experience shows that lower-than-expected CPI data may drive up prices of Bitcoin and others in the short term.
If inflation (CPI) data exceeds expectations
· Market Interpretation: Stubborn inflation, the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates for a longer time, even considering further tightening.
· Potential Impact: Tightening expectations may reduce market liquidity and dampen investor preference for high-risk assets. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may thus face selling pressure.
If initial jobless claims increase significantly
· Market Interpretation: Signs of cooling in the labor market, the economy may weaken.
· Potential Impact: This may strengthen market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, logically similar to 'inflation below expectations,' which may provide support for cryptocurrencies.
Current market backdrop
It is worth noting that due to the previous U.S. government shutdown, the CPI report data for November is incomplete, lacking key October CPI and November month-on-month data. Therefore, the market's reaction may be more complicated, and some analyses suggest its reference value is limited, with market focus potentially shifting more quickly to the complete December data. Before the data release, the cryptocurrency market has shown cautious sentiment, with Bitcoin prices under pressure.
💡 What to pay attention to before and after data release
1. Immediate Volatility: Within a few minutes to an hour after the data is released, the market typically experiences sharp fluctuations and significant volume, trading requires special attention to risk.
2. Market Digestion: The market needs time to interpret the details of the data and the underlying policy signals. Prices may fluctuate within a new range 4-8 hours after the data is released.
3. Other Central Bank Dynamics: Recent interest rate decisions from the UK, Japan, and the European Central Bank may also affect global capital flows and market sentiment, thereby impacting cryptocurrencies.
In summary, tonight's data is an important event affecting short-term market sentiment. If the data meets expectations, the market reaction may be relatively muted; if it deviates significantly from expectations, it may trigger larger market movements.
