Zhuoyuan 12.18 CPI is coming - Gold Evening Review

Tonight's CPI forecast: Inflation slows down while expectations are raised, gold bets on both sides and risk management show a muted market reaction to this CPI data, primarily due to the combined influence of three factors: First, the lack of data credibility, affected by the U.S. government shutdown in October-November, the October CPI data is permanently missing, and this report cannot provide month-on-month data, with the interruption of survey work during the shutdown further raising doubts about data quality; Second, the Federal Reserve's policy focus has shifted from combating inflation to preventing excessive deterioration in the labor market, with weak employment providing support for rate cuts, which has relatively diminished the importance of CPI data unless the final value deviates significantly from expectations; Third, the market has anticipated future policy changes ahead of time, with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term ending in May next year, and the market generally betting that his successor will implement more aggressive rate cut policies, further diluting the impact of this CPI data due to pre-priced behaviors.

Currently, gold continues to maintain a high-level oscillation and repair in the daily trend, with prices temporarily compressed between 4270-4350. In the 4-hour trend, after continuous oscillation, the technical pattern shows signs of slight weakening, with short-term moving averages beginning to gradually turn downward, and the K-line slowly breaking through short-term moving average support, suggesting there may still be room for further downward adjustment in the short-term trend. In the hourly trend, the K-line basically stays close to the short-term moving average, maintaining a good oscillating downward trend, with prices near previous support zones showing little rebound strength or continuity, leaning towards potential short-term adjustment space.

Go long near gold 4305-4310. Target 4335-4350, breaking 4350 would indicate a new high, if not able to continue, lightly short.

The above analysis is Zhuoyuan's personal analysis, investing has risks and everything is subject to actual trading $BTC $ETH #美国非农数据超预期