On December 19th, if the Bank of Japan officially raises interest rates to 0.75%, the shoe drops. A lot of voices immediately pop up in the Moments: "The bad news is all out, it's a great opportunity to buy the dip!" — But in reality, it's not that simple.

"All bad news = good news" is a mantra that, in a market dominated by yen arbitrage trading, is fundamentally toxic. In the past three rate hikes in Japan, Bitcoin didn't experience a "bounce back"; instead, it fell harder each time: 23%, 26%, 31%... Each time, it first surged to entice the bulls, then violently crashed. Why? Because the real bad news isn't about "whether to raise rates" but about the global liquidity withdrawal triggered by rate hikes that is just beginning.

Today the market seems calm, but on-chain data is screaming: large transfers are surging, net inflows to exchanges are hitting new monthly highs, and perpetual contract funding rates are turning negative — smart money is quietly retreating, leaving retail investors to pick up the pieces in the illusion of "good news."

More crucially, this time Japan is not just a one-time operation, but the starting point of policy normalization. Kazuo Ueda has hinted that "interest rates are far from neutral levels," indicating more room for rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Fed's interest rate cuts are being delayed repeatedly. This mismatch of "Japan withdrawing liquidity, while the U.S. is slow to release liquidity" could lead to a wave of arbitrage liquidation lasting several weeks or even months.

So don't rush to call a reversal. The real "bad news is all out" will wait until yen arbitrage positions are completely cleared, leverage returns to safe levels, and market sentiment drops to freezing points — and right now? It's just the storm lifting the first tile.

If you really believe "good news is coming," you might want to ask yourself: when everyone thinks it's an opportunity, who is still selling? $BTC #美国非农数据超预期