November 2025 U.S. CPI Data Controversy, Market Impact, and Gold Strategy

The U.S. November 2025 CPI data has been released, bringing a "big surprise" to the market: CPI year-on-year at 2.7%, core CPI year-on-year at 2.6%, both below the market expectation of 3%. Core inflation has reached a new low since early 2021, creating an illusion of a "cliff-like cooling" in inflation. After the data was released, the market reacted immediately: the dollar fell sharply, stocks and bonds rose simultaneously, and the Nasdaq rose over 1%; precious metals briefly surged before facing profit-taking, showing a tendency of "taking profits while ahead."

However, this data was quickly questioned by economists as being “full of discrepancies,” with the main culprit being a record government shutdown. As a result, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to collect price data in October, and sampling was delayed in November, leading to the use of an “extrapolation method” with old data, such as directly using April rental data, while housing costs account for one-third of the CPI weight. This handling directly led to an “artificially low” inflation rate, with abnormal declines in airfare and clothing prices. Economists generally criticized the data as being “full of holes,” and the Bureau of Labor Statistics also issued a prior warning about the reliability of the data. Experts pointed out that the December CPI may face upward revisions, and the impact of this data discrepancy will not be completely eliminated until April next year. Inflation has indeed cooled but is far from the exaggerated figures shown in the data; this report is more like a confused “messy account.”

The data also prompted a sharp turnaround in the attitude of Federal Reserve officials: previously, on December 10, during a 25 basis point rate cut, Goolsbee, who voted against, firmly advocated waiting for more data before discussing further rate cuts, stated after seeing the November CPI data that it was “all surprises,” indicating that if the trend of cooling inflation is stable, a significant rate cut next year will be possible, with a high probability of substantial rate decreases by the end of the year, while also reminding not to “overinterpret single-month data,” leaving room for himself.

In the gold market, the previous trading day saw a surge followed by a retreat, with prices touching around 4374 before coming under pressure, closing near 4332, and forming a long lower shadow candlestick on the daily chart, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears. Looking back at recent trends, the surge and retreat have occurred multiple times, previously forming a volatile pattern of rising without breaking highs and retreating without breaking lows, with significant pressure at the 4374 high point, making it difficult to break through during the day; volatility remains the most likely trend.

From an operational perspective, the current gold price is unlikely to see a significant decline, while upward momentum also lacks sustainability, leading to range-bound volatility.