Crypto friends, I'm Hengtong! Today’s $ETH market, has it left you confused again? Yesterday's US CPI data just triggered a wave, and today the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, yet ETH didn't drop but instead soared above 2900! Many are starting to feel torn: is this market going to break through 3000 and aim for 3100, or turn around and drop below 2870 to find support at 2770? Don’t rush, pay attention to Ruishen, who will explain it clearly in simple terms and offer some practical advice!
News:
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, reaching a 30-year high. Logically, this should be bad news, right? But the market instead surged—why? Because the rate hike was already anticipated, and when bad news is fully priced in, it becomes good news! Additionally, last night's US CPI data was mild, indicating that inflation isn't as scary, allowing capital to come in and play. Therefore, today's rise isn't truly strong; it's more of a rebound from 'news speculation.'
Technical analysis:
From the hourly candlestick chart, ETH opened at 2834, surged to 2934, and closed at 2901, with an increase of 2.38%. But note: it is still below the rebound resistance level of 3000! The key level of 2870 was not broken, but the MACD white and yellow lines are in a golden cross below the zero axis, which looks like it wants to rise, but the volume may be shrinking—indicating insufficient upward momentum, possibly a 'false golden cross'. The capital flow data reveals the truth: short-term funds are entering, but long-term funds are exiting! This indicates that big players are secretly offloading during the rebound, so retail investors should not foolishly buy in.
Daily sharing. If this helps you, you can follow Hengtong and enter the chat room to get firsthand news and entry points!
Opinion:
Hengtong believes that ETH will have a hard time breaking through 3000 today! Why? First, the overall trend is still declining, with heavy resistance; second, major funds are flowing out long-term, indicating that big players are not optimistic about sustained growth.
Therefore, the market is likely to face resistance in the 2950-3000 range and then turn down. If it breaks the key level of 2870, the next stop is the support at 2770. But be careful, if it unexpectedly stabilizes above 3000, it may test 3100 in the short term, although the probability is low—because the impact of Japan's interest rate hike is still ongoing, and the tightening of global funds is not good for cryptocurrencies.
Retail investor operation advice:
Don't chase the highs! Now that it has risen to 2900+, if you rush in, you will just be a 'bag holder'.
Shorting opportunity: Short at highs in the 2950-3000 range, first look at 2850, and if that breaks, look at 2770. Remember, keep your position light; don’t go all in!
For those who want to go long: Just wait for a pullback near 2770 to catch a rebound, get in and out quickly, and run when you make a profit.
If you always feel one step behind the market, always 'buying and it drops, selling and it rises', then I tell you, it’s not a lack of analysis; you lack a professional guide who can remind you in real-time that 'opportunity is coming' and 'run fast'!
If you don't know how to time your entry, you can follow Hengtong. The God of Wealth will analyze in real-time in the chat room and provide the best entry points!!#比特币波动性 #ETH走势分析
