Family, who understands! As soon as the non-farm data came out last night, I was staring at the screen and laughed out loud like a pig. This thing is more exciting than our market's long and short explosions. On the surface, it looks cheerful and talks about economic resilience, but peeling back the layers reveals traces of a 'soft landing' script. It’s no exaggeration to say that understanding this 'schizophrenic' report is more important than closely watching mainstream coin K-lines, as the Federal Reserve's next moves will directly determine whether we can get a share of the soup with the chips we hold!
First, let me give a lesson to the brothers who didn't stay up late: This non-farm payroll report is like a 'drama queen' in a suit, and at first glance, it seems to be all highlights. The headline data is blinding, with 199,000 new jobs added, slightly exceeding market expectations, and many macro influencers immediately jumped out to shout, 'The U.S. economy is stable as a rock.' If you only look at this headline, you might think, 'It's over, the Federal Reserve is going hawkish again, the crypto market is going to correct.' But I advise you not to panic; this is all surface-level show for the outsiders. We insiders need to peel back the skin to see the tricks inside the meat.
Here's the key point! Valuable insights alert! The 'soft assistance' in this report is not hidden at all; I saw through it at a glance:
First, the unemployment rate's 'reverse operation' is too conspicuous. From 3.9% back to 3.8%, don't be deceived by the numbers; this is not an improvement, but a clear signal that the labor market is beginning to 'ease up'! Simply put, more people are looking for jobs, but positions haven't kept up; the market isn't lacking workers as much anymore. What does this mean for our crypto circle? An easing labor market = companies don’t have to spend big bucks to attract talent = reduced wage pressure = inflation is easier to cool down, and the Federal Reserve has one less reason to raise interest rates. Got it?
Second, the downward revision of the previous values, this 'dark maneuver,' must be criticized. October's employment data has been significantly revised downwards, indicating that the previous 'prosperity' was inflated; now, it's just squeezing out some bubbles. The trend is very clear: employment growth is already on the decline, it's not 'robust,' but rather a gentle version of 'the end of the strong bow.'
Third, the industry divergence is simply 'a tale of two cities.' Most new jobs rely on healthcare and government positions, while manufacturing looks a bit better only because the previous strikes have ended and some people have been hired. The industries that truly reflect the vitality of the private economy are already showing signs of fatigue. It's like our crypto circle, where only a few mainstream coins are holding strong, while altcoins are laying flat. So, do you think this market is strong or weak?
The core signal is still wage inflation! The average hourly wage growth rate has dropped to 0.4% month-on-month and 4.0% year-on-year. This is what the Federal Reserve cares about the most! A slowdown in wage growth means inflationary pressure is genuinely easing. I've mentioned before that the core goal of the Federal Reserve is to suppress inflation. As long as inflation is decreasing, the interest rate hike cycle will inevitably end, and the next step will be the realization of rate cuts. This report has directly elevated that expectation, which is the most favorable underlying logic for the crypto circle!
Let me share my personal opinion; no rebuttals accepted: this non-farm report is a 'golden exterior, rotten interior' script, aimed at reinforcing the narrative of 'moderate economic slowdown and controllable inflation.' It hasn't proven that the economy is overheating; rather, it has confirmed the fact that growth is cooling. For our crypto market, this is definitely a positive signal. The expectation of liquidity easing is getting closer, and the momentum for funds to flow from traditional markets to high-risk assets will become stronger. Next, there's no need to rush to cut losses or blindly chase highs; just patiently wait for the trend to clarify and follow the macro rhythm.
Finally, let me say something from the heart: in today's market, it’s not about who makes money faster, but about who sees accurately. Macroeconomic data is the key to determining the big direction, and in such non-farm reports, every detail hides opportunities for the crypto circle. I will keep a close eye on the upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve's statements, and I will update everyone as soon as there are any new developments.
If you think my analysis makes sense, don't forget to follow me@帝王说币 #美国非农数据超预期 $BTC
