Current Market Trends (Post-Rate Hike Market) and Expectations Before, During, and After Ueda's Press Conference

🗣️ 2. During the Speech — Expectation Gap and Real-Time Reaction (Expected around 15:00)

📌 Key Points of Market Focus (To Assess During the Speech)

The market is most concerned with three types of statements (Attached Image)👇

Core Logic:

“Not as Hawkish as Expected” = Positive for Risk Assets in the Short Term

“More Hawkish than Expected” = Impact on Risk Appetite + Reinforcement of Tightening Resonance

📌 Immediate Market Reaction Tendency During the Speech

If Ueda reiterates a cautious outlook + Relies on Data → The market will interpret this as not Hawkish → Short-term Buying Pressure is Expected to Strengthen

If Substantial “More Hawkish than Expected” Language Appears → Significant Pressure on Risk Assets

📊 Expectation Judgement Indicators:

USD/JPY Trend (If the Yen does not strengthen significantly → Considered Dovish)

Cryptocurrency Trading Volume and Directional Breakthrough

US Stocks / Immediate Reaction of Risk Assets

📈 Real-Time Trading Logic (During the Speech)

1️⃣ Dovish: Increased Short-Term Rebound Strength

2️⃣ Hawkish: Strengthened Retracement or Continued Downward Movement #美国非农数据超预期 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH 0