Recently, the crypto circle has indeed been experiencing a 'bombardment of news + roller coaster market' double buff effect, just after dealing with the U.S. CPI last night, today we have to brace for the big news from the Bank of Japan.
The U.S. CPI shows a 'cooling signal', but the crypto circle is playing 'sweet first, bitter later'.
Last night, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) finally released the CPI data for November — after all, the data collection was interrupted in October due to the government shutdown, and the report was canceled, making this the first inflation report after the interruption.
The results are surprising: the overall CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 3.0%-3.1%; the core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy) also only rose 2.6%, below the expected 3.0%. This indicates that aside from food and housing, other prices have stabilized, which not only reduces everyone's living burden but also strengthens the hope for a 'soft landing' of the economy, and may even prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner.
I initially thought it was a stabilizing signal, but the crypto circle is still familiar with the 'rise then fall' routine: once the CPI was announced, Bitcoin surged close to $90,000, and Ethereum followed suit. However, the good times didn't last long, as it was soon hit by a heavy sell-off; Bitcoin fell to $84,456 early this morning, and the psychological barrier of $85,000 was once again breached; Ethereum fared worse, briefly dropping below $2,800.
This wave of volatility directly triggered a lot of liquidations: over 160,000 traders were affected in the past 24 hours, with liquidation amounts nearing $5.5 billion, and the total market cap of the crypto market has also dropped to $2.87 trillion. I can only say that contract players really have strong hearts!
Japan's largest interest rate hike in 30 years is landing today! Has the bearish sentiment been digested?
Just after enduring the fluctuations from the CPI, today we have to face the 'big test' from the Bank of Japan — the interest rate decision will be announced at 11 AM, and Governor Ueda Kazuo will personally interpret it. The market has already guessed it; it will surely be a 25 basis point hike, raising the rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, which is the highest interest rate level in Japan in 30 years since 1995.
Theoretically, raising interest rates could cause those leveraging with low-yield yen to close their positions early, which might trigger market fluctuations. But to be honest, that drop yesterday has likely absorbed most of this bearish sentiment.
Let's talk about Ethereum's operations: I originally set a long position at $2,750, but when I checked this morning, the lowest it went was $2,775, which just happened to eat up the large order at $2,780 before starting to surge; it has now risen to $2,850. My judgment is that as long as Ethereum can stabilize above $2,800, it can still be a good time to go long!
As for Bitcoin, $85,000 is the key support line for bulls. If it doesn't stabilize in the short term, it's highly likely to continue falling to $80,000 to test support, so keep an eye on that position.
These altcoins are about to make moves? LC is gaining momentum, while ASTER whales are secretly accumulating.
Mainstream coins are fluctuating endlessly, but among the altcoins, there are a few promising ones that seem ready to make moves; let me highlight two for everyone:
The first one is $LC, which has been obediently consolidating in a 'bull flag' pattern recently, tightening over the past few days, with pressure building up clearly, indicating it's getting ready to make a big move; it’s worth paying close attention!
The second one is $ASTER; its order flow is very friendly to bulls! Everyone can clearly see that during every drop, the whale big shots are stealthily bottom-fishing (the green circles are the buying traces during each drop). Moreover, on the order book, there are still plenty of high-priced buy orders piled up below the current price. This is clearly not a panic sell-off; it’s evident that large funds are quietly accumulating to build their positions.
UDOG: The narrative is good, but is the layout lacking? Don't rush recklessly in a bear market!
Lastly, let's talk about Binance's newly launched stablecoin concept coin $UDOG; the project's narrative is actually decent: backed by Binance's new stablecoin, the first wave of trading volume was quite sufficient, and later it will likely rely on meme popularity to push for stablecoin status, with a suitable market cap; it could have been worth a small position to try out.
But I dug into the KOL's positions and found that they were all small airdrop accounts, even CZ's GMGN account only received a few coins. This is a bit outrageous; such stingy airdrops are either meant to create fake traffic or the manipulators are just too small-minded. For such projects, everyone should be more cautious.
Lastly, a reminder: it's still a bear market, and stability is the most important! Don't blindly follow the trend and rush in; if it's not the best entry point, it's better to miss out than to make a hasty decision. The market is not short of opportunities, but it lacks the patience to resist temptation.
