Recently, when opening the market software, do you feel a sense of frustration like 'a punch hitting cotton'? Bitcoin is bouncing around the 80,000 range, yet it cannot break through resistance or fall below support. Half of the comments are shouting to buy the dip while the other half are calling to run away, it has clearly turned into a large debate between bulls and bears 😂 Today, let's get straight to the point, based on the latest market structure, I'll explain clearly in plain language: can we enter the market now? What exactly is missing from the so-called 'bottom signal'?
Let me highlight my core viewpoint: don't be fooled by a short-term small rebound! The current market is a typical 'bear-led grinding market', and every rebound is just giving bears a chance to 'stab again'. Buy the dip? Wait a bit longer!
First, look at the underlying logic of market structure—the recent price movements are simply a 'reproduction of the downward template': highs are getting lower each time, and the rebound force is as weak as if it hasn’t eaten, every time it slightly rises, it’s pushed back by selling pressure. The essence behind this is 'demand cannot support the scene', simply put, there aren’t enough buyers to absorb the chips thrown out by sellers.
Let’s look at the technical 'whispers': momentum indicators and price movements are simply 'best partners', synchronously bearish throughout. Those in the know understand that unless these two indicators show a clear reversal, the so-called 'rebound' is only a short-term correction, not a trend reversal. Don’t think that because it has dropped a lot, it should rise; in the crypto market, 'the power of the trend is 100 times more reliable than your intuition'.
Next is the valuable information time! Three key resistance levels, remember these numbers; they are more useful than guessing the market.
1. 88533 level: this is the starting point of the recent major drop, and also the 'first stumbling block' on the road to rebound. To relieve the downward pressure, stand firmly on this position first, otherwise every rebound is just 'talking big'.
2. 87200-87900 range: this range is a 'pressure gathering area', overlaid with long-term moving averages and previous sideways areas, like a dynamic wall; it is very likely to be blocked when rebounding to this range.
3. 89500 high position: this is the 'key key' for a short-term trend reversal. Only by steadily breaking through and holding here can it be said that the bearish force has truly exhausted; otherwise, don’t expect the trend to change.
Let’s look at the support levels; this is our 'risk red line'. Be cautious if any of these are breached:
1. 84450 low point: this is the bottom line of the current sideways range; once broken, the market structure will further deteriorate, and there may be deeper corrections ahead.
2. 84000 psychological level: I don’t need to explain how strong the psychological impact of whole numbers is, right? Once it’s lost, it may trigger panic selling, and then the scene will be hard to control.
3. 83000 support: this is the next important 'safety cushion', a key position summarized based on historical trends. If the first two supports can't hold, this one needs to be closely monitored.
Different types of friends, I have targeted advice for you, don’t blindly follow the trend:
For friends who want to go long: let me give you a piece of advice, don’t be aggressive in entering the market right now! The current market conditions are simply not suitable for bullish 'hard hitting'. The most prudent approach is to wait for signals: a breakout at 88533 + increased trading volume + momentum indicators showing bullish signals (like MACD golden cross, RSI returning above 50). Before these signals appear, entering the market is just sending 'chives' to the market.
For friends who want to short: the trend is still on your side, but don’t be too greedy. You can pay attention to two opportunities: first, when the price hits the 86800-87200 range and is blocked; second, when 84450 is broken and the downward momentum strengthens. Remember, risk control is the bottom line, stop losses must be set above key resistance levels, don’t let profits turn into losses.
For friends who are on the sidelines: your current strategy is to 'lie flat and watch the show'! Focus on the range of 84450-87200, and don’t think about bottom fishing before clear reversal signals appear (like a significant increase in trading volume, breakthrough of key resistance levels). The market is not short of opportunities, it lacks patient non-impulsiveness.
Finally, I must remind you: I don’t need to say how crazy the volatility of the crypto market is. This analysis is based on a 4-hour chart, and short-term volatility may suddenly intensify. I recommend everyone to combine short-term charts with long-term trends, and pay more attention to macro news. At this stage, 'surviving is more important than how much money you make', strictly control your positions, and don’t put all your eggs in one basket.
If you currently feel helpless and confused about trading, and want to learn more about the cryptocurrency world and first-hand cutting-edge information, follow me@标哥说币 .
