The recent cryptocurrency market is simply like a tormenting little goblin—unable to rise or fall, pulling back and forth in a range every day, causing many brothers to ask me, 'Is it time to cut losses and leave?' 'Should I buy the dip and increase my position?' Don't panic! Today I must share a big scoop with you: this weekend's monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Japan is the key bomb that will determine the direction of the market for the next month! As an analyst who has been watching the market for 8 years and has stepped into countless pits, I can guarantee that 80% of retail investors are unaware of the true impact this will have on our cryptocurrency market!
Let me give some background for the new brothers; old fans can skip to the good stuff: this weekend, the Bank of Japan is holding its most important annual policy meeting, and everyone in the circle is basically betting that it will raise interest rates by 25 basis points, setting a new high in nearly 30 years. Don't think this is just a household affair that has nothing to do with us—know that for decades, Japan has been a 'major player in liquidity', with a lot of funds borrowing yen to buy various high-risk assets, which is what is called 'arbitrage play'. Now that it is going to raise interest rates and tighten liquidity, that money has to flow back, and the global direction of funds will change, so our cryptocurrency market, being a high-volatility asset, will surely be the first to be affected!
Let’s talk about something practical; I am very familiar with the current market state—a typical case of 'pre-event anxiety'! Bitcoin has fallen from its previous high of nearly 90,000 and is now hovering around 85,000, which looks scary, but in fact, it’s just that those who made money before are taking some profits and securing gains, plus everyone is afraid to casually add leverage, it's purely an emotional pullback, not a big problem. I personally judge that this is the market 'holding back big moves', just waiting for the Bank of Japan's signal; either it will clearly surge upwards or it will step back to find support.
Here’s my core opinion, purely personal: don’t keep staring at the K-line charts and guessing the ups and downs; first, understand the macro big picture! Now it’s not only the Bank of Japan; the statements from the Federal Reserve are also ambiguous, and global funds are in a 'holding cash and waiting' mode. At times like this, it’s impossible for the cryptocurrency market to go it alone. Recently, I chatted with several institutional friends; they are all reducing their trading frequency, waiting to pick up bargains after policies are implemented. This is the difference between professional players and retail investors—don’t go against the trend, and don’t bet on policies to win or lose.
Let’s talk about Ethereum, this time it performed quite well, showing more resilience than many other small coins. My analysis shows that mainly its network upgrade expectations are supporting it, and the fundamentals are sound, but it can't withstand the tightening liquidity in the larger environment. So don't think Ethereum can rise against the trend; in the short term, we still have to watch the macroeconomic conditions. My own operation is to close all the leverage I added before and keep some bullets to wait for confirmation of direction later; at times like this, 'surviving' is more important than anything.
Let me share with you my current 'survival strategy', pure dry goods, if you can't remember, you can save this: First, cut your trading frequency in half; don't chase prices and panic sell every day; Second, wait until the Bank of Japan meeting is over before making any moves, whether it goes up or down, wait for 1-2 days for confirmation signals to avoid being fooled by 'false breakouts'; Third, only focus on quality assets supported by fundamentals; don't touch those illogical air coins. I dare say that in this market, patience is worth more than anything; those who rush to enter the market are likely to be educated by the market.
Finally, let me say something from the heart: in my years of watching the market, I've seen countless policy-driven trends, and every time it's 'those who panic lose big money, while those who are stable pick up the big leaks'. At this point, don’t think about getting rich by predicting market trends; first control your risks and keep your pockets tight.
If you feel helpless and confused in trading right now and want to learn more about the cryptocurrency world and first-hand cutting-edge information, follow me@标哥说币
