Family! Who understands! After waiting for 30 years for a rate hike in Japan, it surprisingly became the 'takeoff signal' for the crypto market! The day before, those who were shouting 'arbitrage funds in yen are running, the crypto market is going to collapse' must be slapping their thighs today, right? BTC directly V-shaped reversed from $84,418 to $88,376, a rise of 4,000 points, turning 'bad news is good news' into a textbook-level live performance!
As someone who has been watching the macro market for 8 years, I have long told everyone in the community: don't be frightened by the two words 'interest rate hike', you have to look at the essence of things! This time, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the rate to 0.75%. It seems tight, but the core key is - the real interest rate is still negative! What does that mean? It means that keeping money in the bank still results in a loss, and the monetary environment is essentially still relatively loose. Those who are worried about 'arbitrage funds being liquidated on a large scale' are simply overthinking it; there has been no panic selling in the market at all. Instead, the panic positions that were scared out earlier have all been taken over by smart institutions.
More importantly, the macro environment is basically 'fully buffed' now! The US CPI data has dropped to 2.7%. What signal does this send? It means that the barriers to interest rate cuts in January are basically cleared! I had previously interpreted Tom Lee's view for everyone. He has long said, 'Mainstream coins will surely break new highs before the end of January.' At that time, some people mocked him as a 'big deceiver.' Now, looking back, he really understands the macro cycle. This time, Japan's interest rate hike, the 'last major bearish news,' has just given institutions a legitimate opportunity to bottom fish, which is equivalent to giving the market a reassuring pill.
It's not just BTC; Ethereum hasn't lagged either, synchronously rebounding over 200 points to 2983. And here's the key — the regulators haven't said no to its spot products! This opens up a lot of possibilities. I have previously emphasized that Ethereum, as the leader in tokenized infrastructure, has always been undervalued. Now that the macro environment is improving and regulatory expectations are easing, if we don't take a position here, are we really going to wait until it takes off before chasing higher prices?
Finally, let me say something from the heart: right now, at this juncture, is exactly what I have repeatedly emphasized as the 'best spot window'! For those still on the sidelines, stop waiting for a 'lower low.' The macro cycle is here, and once the interest rate cut gate opens in January, the upward momentum could be directly locked in. At the current level, when we look back at the end of the month, it will all be prices that make you slap your thigh in regret for missing out! I have already allocated some on compliant platforms and have shared the specific layout logic with everyone in the community.
Next, I will continue to closely monitor the US non-farm payroll data and central bank statements. Any changes will be immediately shared in the community. Follow me @ChainOnBiaoGe, so you won't get lost!
