Behind the market fluctuations is the cognitive gap between whales and retail investors.
This morning, Bitcoin experienced another 'heartbeat game', quickly bouncing back after falling below $85,000 during trading. This kind of market makes it hard to sleep.
I watched the on-chain data and noticed an interesting phenomenon: the deep-sea whales are quietly accumulating. The spot buying power curve has clearly risen, and the average order size has remained high for a month. But to be honest, I choose to stay put.
The signal behind the actions of whales
Data shows that despite the market's low sentiment, the activity of whales is increasing. In mid-December, a mysterious whale dumped 540 million to increase ETH long positions, not retreating even with a floating loss of 20 million.
Earlier in early November, when BTC fell below 100,000 USD, the whales had already started to buy ETH against the trend. Well-known investors like Yi Lihua publicly stated they were accumulating ETH, believing that 'there are huge opportunities before the U.S. government reopens.'
But here's the problem: since the launch of the spot ETF in 2024, the game's rules in the market have changed. Now, ETF fund inflows/outflows are a stronger driving factor for daily prices. Even the largest whales find it difficult to compete with the massive capital flows of institutions like BlackRock.
The technical indicators tell me to be cautious.
Looking at the chart without emotions, the current technical structure is indeed concerning:
The daily level has shown a typical 'expanding bearish candlestick' with an upper shadow, indicating that every rebound encounters strong selling pressure.
The short-term key support is in the 84,000-85,000 USD range. Once breached, it may test 80,000 USD.
The MACD indicators on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are both below the zero axis, clearly defining the current bearish trend in the market.
Since entering December, Bitcoin has tested the 86,000-88,000 USD range multiple times but has not been able to effectively stabilize. This indicates heavy selling pressure above and insufficient bullish momentum. Each rebound is a selling opportunity, not a signal to chase.
Macro liquidity is tightening.
The macro environment is currently exerting pressure on risk assets:
The expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has significantly weakened, and the market predicts that there may be no rate cuts in January and March 2026. This means that expectations for liquidity easing need to be adjusted.
More critically, the Bank of Japan may begin its interest rate hike cycle. As the last major central bank in the world to exit negative interest rates, Japan's interest rate hike will directly tighten the liquidity of global yen arbitrage trading, leading to capital withdrawal from high-risk assets.
In this macro context, it is difficult for the cryptocurrency market to stand alone. Although I am optimistic in the long term, I must respect market trends in the short term.
Why I choose to wait and not buy at the bottom
In the face of the temptation of whales buying at the bottom, I still adhere to trading discipline. The reasons are as follows:
Buying against the trend is a high-risk behavior. In a downtrend, catching a falling knife often leads to injury. The real bottom does not form in panic, but quietly appears when uncertainty is at its peak.
Left-side trading requires sufficient capital management. Most traders do not have adequate position management skills, blindly buying at the bottom before a clear reversal signal, often leading to running out of ammunition before the real bottom arrives.
I need to wait for clear counter-trend signals: price stabilizing above key resistance levels, significantly increasing volume, and forming a bottom structure. Currently, none of these conditions are met.
My current operational strategy
In this highly uncertain market environment, I adopt the following strategies:
For short-term traders, a rebound to the 87,000-88,000 USD range is an opportunity to short, with a stop-loss set above 90,000, targeting the 84,000 USD range.
For medium to long-term investors, be patient and wait for the market to digest selling pressure and form a clearer bottom structure. Do not let short-term fluctuations interfere with your judgment.
Strictly control positions to ensure that the potential risk-reward ratio of each trade is greater than 1:1.5. Do not exhaust ammunition in an unclear market.
The market will not always decline, but before a clear trend reversal, the best strategy is to protect the principal and wait for opportunities with higher certainty.
Epilogue
The market always generates opportunities in despair, moves forward in hesitation, and ends in frenzy. The current market sentiment is indeed cautious, but it is not yet a moment of despair.
I will continue to monitor whale movements, ETF fund flows, and the performance of key technical levels, waiting for a real turning signal. After all, investing is not about who acts faster, but about who survives longer.
Feel free to share your views in the comments section, and let’s discuss market trends rationally together!#巨鲸动向 $ETH
